The penultimate event in the European Tour season takes place in Shanghai this week when the BMW Masters is played. This is the third event in the Final Series and with the end of the Race to Dubai drawing in it is a big week for everyone in the mix for that competition.
This tournament used to be the first tournament in the Final Series but it has been moved to the other side of the HSBC Champions to give it a much more important role in the calendar.
Marcel Siem is the defending champion this week after he took care of Ross Fisher and Alex Levy in a playoff here last year. The fiery German is 125/1 to retain his title this week.
As has been the case for the opening three runnings of this event the Lake Malaren Golf Club in Shanghai is the venue for the tournament. As the name of the course would suggest there is water in play on a number of holes and like a lot of Nicklaus designs large bunkering is a feature.
The course is a par 72 which measures 7,594 yards and the general consensus is that it is playing every one of those yards. As with most Nicklaus courses second shots and putting will be key this week but length may be an advantage.
Justin Rose tees it up this week a few weeks after landing the Hong Kong Open title. He’s the 6/1 favourite with Henrik Stenson next best at 12/1. Branden Grace finished well last week and he is 18/1 alongside Patrick Reed who is continuing his lengthy spell in Asia this week. It is 22/1 bar that quartet.
If we look at the past winners accuracy over length in terms of the names of who have won would seem to be significant but those who have been up there in driving distance seemed to prosper last year and with the course playing long this year distance is the angle I’m going in with.
With that in mind my first pick is going to be the American bomber Peter UIhlein. Uihlein is as long as most off the tee but he goes pin hunting with his second shots and usually putts quite well too so it is no surprise to me at least that he has a top five finish in his only appearance here.
2015 has been a tricky year for Uihlein as a whole but he has made the top 15 in three of his last five events and one of the two he didn’t was in the British Masters on a track that never once suited him so we can write that off so with the American in good form he’s my first pick this week.
For large parts of last week Ross Fisher had a genuine tilt at the HSBC Champions title. In the end he had to finish in a tie for third but the quality of his long game was encouraging and having lost in a playoff here 12 months ago we know the Englishman can be a big factor around this track.
Fisher’s length off the tee could well be significant and his experience of this venue and good all round quality should see him in contention again. Fisher has a top 15 in the Shenzhen International this season already and last week’s third placed finish so China seems to agree with the Londoner and I fancy he could be a big price this week.
As always I’m going to take a couple at bigger prices this week too and the first of those is a local player who was also in contention for three rounds last week. That man is Haotong Li.
If I’m honest his price is probably now borderline as to whether there is value left but the fact he tees it up on his home course this week just about sways me in at the 66/1 on offer. Li nearly won the Shenzhen International but Kiradech Aphibarnrat nicked it in a playoff against him and for three rounds he looked good last week.
Only a dodgy start to the final round cost him a genuine shot at the HSBC Champions last week but the experience of that and competing strongly in the Shenzhen International should stand him in good stead and I’ll back him for another big week here.
Finally one man who is always a danger in Asia it seems is Scott Hend. Hend has already won in Hong Kong and in Macau in the last 12 months or so and he really should have added a title in Thailand to that record earlier in the year.
He’s a long hitter who certainly won’t be hampered by the course playing really long and if he can find his way on the greens again this week I would expect the Australian to be right there come Sunday.
Finally I’m going to take advantage of a huge price in the Top 20 finish market on another player who is at home this week. That player is Ashun Wu, the winner of the China Open earlier in the season.
That win has taken any pressure off the Chinese player and with him knowing every inch of this course inside out and having the confidence of knowing he can compete at European Tour level I’m expecting him to go well. As the leaders disappear into the sunset a few players might turn their minds to Dubai next week and he could well go past a few late on and finish in the top 20.
Back P.Uihlein to win BMW Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back R.Fisher to win BMW Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back Haotong Li to win BMW Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-5)
Back S.Hend to win BMW Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Paddy Power (1/4 1-5)
Back A.Wu Top 20 Finish for a 2/10 stake at 10.00 with Bet365
Blog golf YTD: +142.71pts
