The PGA Tour leaves America to head north of the border into Canada for the Canadian Open this week as the golf on the fairways and greens gets set to take over from the talk regarding the sport away from the course itself.
Rory McIlroy is no stranger to having the attention on him and he will have it on him this week as he bids to retain the title and actually win it for a third time in succession. He is up against a decent enough field here.
Recent Winners
2022 – Rory McIlroy
2019 – Rory McIlroy
2018 – Dustin Johnson
2017 – Jhonattan Vegas
2016 – Jhonattan Vegas
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Tim Clark
2013 – Brandt Snedeker
2012 – Scott Piercy
2011 – Sean O’Hair
The Course
We are on the move again for the Canadian Open this week as the Oakdale Golf and Country Club in Toronto stages the tournament for the first time. The 18 holes in use this week are made up of holes from three different courses on the property which always makes for a good test when it is the best holes of those available. When they are put together the course will be a par 72 which stretches to 7,264 yards in full.
The opening nine holes are said to have small greens which will be hard to find while the second set of nine are slightly larger but throughout the course there is a creek which comes into play so there will need to be some course management involved here. The rough is said to be up and above five inches in places so there should be a premium on accuracy, although as we have become accustomed to seeing, those who smack it miles have shorter clubs out of the rough so could be at an advantage.
The Field
You never quite know how strong a field is going to be a week before a major, especially for a tournament in a different country to where that major is being held, and while you couldn’t say this field is anything like as strong as the one at Muirfield Village last week, there are a number of household names on show including the man who is looking to win this title for a third year in succession in the form of Rory McIlroy.
A number of his potential Ryder Cup teammates will tee it up this week including Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry and the man who defends the US Open next week in Matthew Fitzpatrick. There is a strong home contingent in the field this week too. They are headed up by Corey Conners while the American charge is headed by the likes of Sam Burns, Cameron Young and Matt Kuchar among others.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is an 11/2 favourite to win the tournament this week. There is no doubting that he is the best player in the field but the man who has been a PGA Tour spokesperson for the last 12 months or so is going to be in demand off the course as much as ever here so that is a massive negative. It is hard to be too convinced by his chances after he failed to convert in Ohio. If he was defending on one of the courses he had won at I might have more temptation to get involved at this price but there are more than enough reasons to oppose.
Tyrrell Hatton has been trending in the right direction in recent weeks and if he can hold it all together for four rounds there is no reason why he can’t justify his position as the 12/1 second favourite for the tournament. You get the feeling Hatton is ready to break out and win again and this would certainly be a good opportunity with a course which should suit and a field which he is more than good enough to be extremely competitive in. The price is a little tight though.
Sam Burns and Matthew Fitzpatrick are next in the betting at 14/1. If Fitzpatrick wasn’t defending the US Open next week but hunch would be that he would be a massive runner here but he wouldn’t be human if he wasn’t already thinking about his special week in Los Angeles. Burns is a different story though. He is more than good enough to win this but his form might just be below his best. He still has successive top 20 finishes coming in here though so shouldn’t be ruled out.
Cameron Young is a 16/1 poke to win the tournament this week. He has never won on the PGA Tour which is an immediate negative while another is that he comes here off the back of successive missed cuts. A positive is that if we consider his weakness to be with the putter, nobody has much knowledge of these greens so he isn’t as inconvenienced by that as he might otherwise be. Even so, without a win to his name he’s plenty short enough.
Main Bets
This feels like a good opportunity for Justin Rose to win another PGA Tour event. He has been ticking since he won at Pebble Beach. He comes here on a six tournament stretch which has yielded results of T6-T36-T16-T25-T9-T12 and in those six events at The Players and two majors so that is top level form in big events with stellar fields. In truth, this is none of those so Rose possibly should be shorter than the 18/1 quotes on him this week. Rose is another who is probably best going to the greens rather than on them so with that disadvantage not as pronounced this week I think he could be a serious runner.
Matt Kuchar is another man who has been on my radar for much of the season and this feels like a perfectly good fit for him. If the rough is as deep as five inches then the way Kuchar finds fairways should be a huge asset this week. Furthermore he is competent at saving par when greens are missed and if the front nine greens are as hard to find as is touted then that will also be important here. Length doesn’t seem vital this week so Kuchar should be able to be very competitive at a decent price.
Outsiders
I’ll go for a couple of outsiders this week as well with the first of those coming in the form of the home man Mackenzie Hughes who should enjoy the test this week. This isn’t a particularly long golf course so he should be able to manage the long game enough to get into positions for his short game and putter to deliver the goods. He is one of the three Canadian players who has won on the PGA Tour this season and playing in front of a home crowd should motivate him to bring his best golf out. He has missed four of his last five cuts but they have come on tough, long golf courses against much better fields than this one. In a similar field the week before the last major, Hughes shot 65-64-73-65 on his way to a T14 at the Byron Nelson. Similar scoring here could well get the job done.
My final pick this week is going to be Chez Reavie. He is another who I never need to look too far for whenever we are on a course where length isn’t an issue. Reavie isn’t having the best season of his career but there are three outings in his last seven tournaments which make me think good form is coming. That stretch began with a T6 in the Texas Open and was followed with a T11 at the RBC Heritage and while the best he has managed since then was a T40, he carded +6 for four rounds at the USPGA but was level par for the final 54 holes in that event. Level par finished T12 for the week so he was one bad round away from a good finish there then at Colonial he opened 67 69 before the third round got him. This is an easier track and Oak Hill and Colonial and the field is nowhere near as strong so Reavie could easily outrun his price.
Tips
Back J.Rose to win Canadian Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Kuchar to win Canadian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Reavie to win Canadian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back M.Hughes to win Canadian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
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