The second day of the Cheltenham Festival is headlined by the Champion Chase but just with the first day, the support cast to the big race is very strong and on Wednesday we get to see a couple of potential superstars in action as well as the best bumper horses on what promises to be a top day on the Cotswolds.
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1.30: Ballymore Novice Hurdle
Favourite
This is the race where we will find out if Samcro is the superstar he’s been built up to be. There’s not really any negatives to what he’s achieved but the only angle I can find is that I’m not totally convinced a step up in trip on bad ground at a very testing track is what he needs at this stage of his career. It would be a shock to see him get turned over but, that said, I’m surprised he’s still available at around 8/11 so maybe he’s not quite the banker people think.
Preview
Samcro faces 13 rivals but, aside from the next 4 in the market, it looks a weakish race. I’ll focus my attentions of those 4 with bets coming from these. Next Destination is his major market rival from the Willie Mullins yard having won all 3 of his hurdle starts. A step up in trip is being talked about but that doesn’t seem apparent to me. His advantage last time, in winning a Grade 1, was being reduced on the run in & the infamous Cheltenham hill could find him out. 7/2 isn’t a price where I could be getting involved. Vision Des Flos won very impressively last time out after a minor wind op but it was a weak Listed hurdle where none of his rivals handled the conditions. He doesn’t look an obvious threat to Samcro.
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Betting
Of the British contingent, I’ll side with Black Op from the in form yard of Tom George who had a winner, a 3rd and a 5th from 3 runners at Cheltenham on the opening day. He’s had 3 runs over hurdles and has improved from race to race. 2 miles was too short at Newbury on his debut when 4th. He raced on the wrong side of the track & was basically outpaced. He was then stepped up to this trip, but in a lowly grade, and won with any amount in hand. The piece of form though that makes him a real contender here is his run in the Grade 2 hurdle here over 2 miles 4 furlongs at the end of January. He was beaten by the Albert Bartlett favourite Santini but would surely have won but for a last flight blunder. The pair came miles clear of the rest & a repeat of that effort will put him firmly in the frame.
My other fancy is the Mullins 2nd string, Duc Des Genievres, who has been beaten by both Samcro & Next Destination this term. However, he remains a horse with massive potential & it’s interesting to note the path his trainer has taken with him. He is very lightly raced, with just 2 runs in Ireland. Opening his campaign in January, he went off a 25/1 against Next Destination & was travelling best 2 flights out, stayed on very well for pressure but fitness told on the run-in. Despite receiving the winner 3lbs, I thought that run was one to note & he followed up that promise finishing 2nd behind Samcro last time out in the Deloitte. He was outpaced but then stayed on all the way to the line & was gradually wearing down the impressive winner. A longer trip & the Cheltenham hill will suit the selection better than anyone & I fancy his chances to go close here.
Tips
Back Duc Des Genievres (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 13.00 with Betfair BOG (1/5 odds 1-3)
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PLACED – Back Black Op (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 with Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
2.50: Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
Favourite
I cannot resist a bet in the cavalry charge better known as the Coral Cup. The Irish have a good record in this & have this year’s favourite in Max Dynamite for the Mullins/Walsh combo. He’s better known as a flat horse & doesn’t look obvious to me so I’m taking on the favourite.
Betting
I am, however, sticking with the Irish challenge & going for 2 unexposed horses from top yards. Voix Du Reve is the first of those & is another from the Mullins yard. He’s bidding for compensation after looking all over the winner in the Fred Winter 2 years ago but for falling at the last. He was held up at the rear that day & I like those tactics in a race like this where you can be switched off & come rattling up the hill past beaten horses.
He’s only 2lb above his Fred Winter mark so looks well handicapped today. He was off for the whole of last season & has only raced twice this term, both at 3 miles. The first of those, he had top weight, travelled sweetly & made rapid progress before being impeded at the last when making his challenge & is another who faded on the run-in, probably because of both fitness & distance. The selection didn’t run as well last time out but again travelled well before distance put paid to his challenge. The handicapper has responded by dropping him 3lb in mark & this unexposed type, back at his right distance, has a massive chance.
Barra is the 2nd one I want on my side. She was 2nd in the Mares Novice race here 12 months ago & only gave way late on to the high class Let’s Dance. She has only won once over hurdles from 12 starts but ran a great race last time out in a handicap when 2nd at 25/1 after a 66 day break. She has a good racing weight & will appreciate the going. However, what impresses me is her record in big fields (ie, over 12 runners); 1st of 24, 2nd of 16 & 2nd of 18. She has form at the track & should, like my first selection, be switched off at the back & is likely to be noted making late headway.
Tips
Back Voix Du Reve (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 William Hill BOG (¼ odds 1-5)
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PLACED – Back Barra (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 21.00 Coral BOG (⅕ odds 1-7)
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4.50: Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Preview
One of the toughest races to solve and with the favourite trading just shy of 10/1, this is a very open heat. There’s been some big priced winners of this race & my selections will follow that pattern. In addition, I’m siding with the British challenge as they bid to find their 5th winner of this on the spin, & the lower weighted horses as only 1 of the last 7 winners has carried over 11st1lb. Those last 2 stats rules out 13 of the 22 runners &, of the remaining 9, there’s 3 I want on side.
Betting
Grand Sancy hails from the Paul Nicholls yard, who himself is responsible for 3 of the last 8 winners of this race. His trainer has said how a fast run race will suit his horse so what better than a 22 runner handicap at the Cheltenham Festival? He finished 2nd on his 2 runs over hurdles, losing out to more experienced types but was well clear of the rest of the field on both occasions.
Last time out, he finished 4th to Redicean, a major fancy for the Triumph, and was no means disgraced. The track was too sharp but he ran well. Held up last, he made significant progress before going wide at the bend. He was then outpaced before staying on again. A bigger field & stiffer track may see him get off the mark at a decent price.
Oxford Blu is the 2nd one to carry my money & is another big price. After winning on his first start over hurdles, he hasn’t won since but was only a neck 2nd last time out in a handicap & is raised just 3lb. Each of his runs note that a stiffer test is needed which is what he’ll get here & the ground is also another big bonus. Interestingly, his 2 best runs have come when Dickie Johnson has ridden him & today sees him climb aboard for the 3rd time, bidding to record his 2nd win.
The final selection is Jonjo’s Knight Destroyer. After trotting up on his first starts over hurdles, he went down at long odds on but that was when giving 6lbs to the current favourite for this race, Nube Negra. He’s now over a stone better off at the weights & needs to turn around a 9 length beating. He was again put in his place by the same time last time out but both were beaten by Triumph favourite Apples Shakira. The front running tactics he deployed weren’t ideal & neither was the small field. A stiffer test & bigger field may bring about improvement & there’s never a good reason to write off a Jonjo handicapper come the Festival.
Tips
Back Grand Sancy (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 21.00 Ladbrokes BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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Back Oxford Blu (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 21.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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Back Knight Destroyer (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 26.00 BetVictor BOG (1/4 odds 1-5)
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