The cinch Championships champion will be crowned at Queens Club in London on Sunday with a new name guaranteed to be on the trophy as the world number two Carlos Alcaraz meets Alex de Minaur in the final.
This ATP 500 tournament is widely regarded as the perfect preparation event for Wimbledon and one of these two will head to SW19 in eight days as the champion. Both have played well this week so the final is nicely poised.
Carlos Alcaraz
The Spanish sensational Carlos Alcaraz is yet to win a title on grass but he is a win away from not only ticking that particular box in his career but also returning to world number one ahead of the third Grand Slam of the year in just over a week. When you consider that there were doubts over how Alcaraz would handle the grass at the beginning of the week, he has made the doubters look a little silly and has grown in quality with every showing.
Alcaraz was a little laboured in his opening win but that was his first match after the clay season so he can be forgiven for that. Since coming through a cliffhanger against Arthur Rinderknech he hasn’t looked back, dispatching Jiri Lehecka, Grigor Dimitrov and Sebastian Korda in straight sets with a set of showreel shots, powerful hitting and incredible movement. We know Alcaraz rarely baulks at the finish line so he looks a worthy favourite here.
Alex de Minaur
This is the second time in as many years that Alex de Minaur will be competing in a final on the grass in England. In 2022 it was in Eastbourne where he played the title match when he went down to Taylor Fritz and now he will take on another star of the game in the form of Carlos Alcaraz. De Minaur has shown that he is comfortable on the grass in those two tournaments though and he is entitled to feel that he has a live crack at this title now.
De Minaur has largely cruised through the draw this week. He took care of veterans Andy Murray and Diego Schwartzman in fine style in the opening two rounds and the only time he was really tested was in a tactical clash with Adrian Mannarino. Having come through that he then dispatched Holger Rune in straight sets in the semi-final so the Australian is living up to the billing of being very comfortable on this surface.
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Head-to-head
These two have only met once in their career which was on the clay in Barcelona last year. Alcaraz won that match but only in a deciding set in what was actually a bit of an epic. That was a semi-final so this will be the first time they have met on a grass court, or a quick court of any time, and it will be the first time they do battle in a final so just how much we can take from that past meeting remains to be seen. I suspect not a whole lot.
Betting
I find it hard to see how Alex de Minaur punches enough holes in the Carlos Alcaraz armour to come through in this match. There have been times that the Australian has hit the ball cleanly this week but by and large it has been off of short balls with nothing on them and he isn’t going to get many of those from an Alcaraz who puts plenty on every shot that he hits. De Minaur’s biggest strength is his ability to get an extra ball back but he’ll do well to find Alcaraz out of position.
I just expect the Spaniard to be too strong and too good for the Australian here. With the exception of maybe fleet of foot I just don’t see where de Minaur is stronger than Alcaraz, even on a surface which the top seed probably isn’t at his best on just yet. Alcaraz has that insane one shot power that can rescue a point in an instant and he has an athleticism that allows him to cover the court incredibly well. We know de Minaur will be game and he’ll give this all he’s got but I only see a straight sets win for Alcaraz here. Since the opening round he hasn’t looked like dropping a set and I’m not convinced there is enough firepower within the Australian to repel the daunting challenge that is coming his way.
Tips
Back C.Alcaraz to win 2-0 for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Sky Bet
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