June is a huge month of international football with two tournaments being played out and the first of those begins in the early hours of Saturday morning UK time when the Centennial Copa America kicks off in the USA.
Traditionally this tournament is played in South America with the 10 nations from that continent and two invited guests but for this 100th year anniversary things are a little different. 16 nations from North and South America have combined for a much bigger event which will be played across 10 cities.
The Format
The 16 nations were divided into four groups of four where each play the other three sides in their group once before the top two in each section qualify for the knockout stages. The quarter finals, semi-finals and final are all knockout football with the winner being crowned in New York on June 26th.
Top Seeds
The top two ranked sides in South America and North America made up the main seeds in each group. Brazil are the highest ranked side but they have named a weaker squad than we might have expected them to do. Although that is disappointing for this tournament it is probably understandable that they have an eye on the Olympics given that the event is in their own country this year. That has to be factored in when taking the 5/1.
Argentina are the other big seeds from the South and they are the 15/8 favourites to win the tournament and with the strength of their squad there are few who would argue with that but they have looked strong before in these events and failed to win them. In terms of attacking power it is frightening how strong Argentina look. They are the team to beat.
Mexico top the seedings from the North and go into the event as 11/1 shots. As defending Olympic champions they have to balance their resources between this tournament and that one but they have named a relatively strong squad for this tournament which they don’t always do so it will be interesting to see how far they go.
USA made it into the top pot of teams ahead of the group draw as tournament hosts and they will hope to use the support they get to their advantage. They are 9/1 to win their own event but they haven’t been helped by the draw which has seen them in a group with Colombia, Costa Rica and Paraguay in a real group of death.
Best of the Rest
Chile are the defending champions of this tournament after they made full use of home advantage 12 months ago to win the title. They are grouped with Argentina but you would expect them to come through and it will be interesting to see how far they go. They are 8/1 to win the title.
Colombia have some real stars at their disposal in this event and at 11/1 they will have their supporters as will Uruguay at the same price. According to the betting market the rest are purely making up the numbers.
Betting
I’m going to take two in this tournament and look for value in both picks. If ever there is an international competition which never goes to the form book and the logical path it is this one so I’m expecting another tournament of shocks and surprises with plenty of good football along the way.
Argentina look like the team to beat but I can’t be backing a side as short as them in a tournament of this kind. If they win then good luck to them but they should have won this last year and were beaten in the final. I’m not convinced Chile will defend the title outside of their home surroundings and I don’t see America being good enough either.
My main pick is going to be on Uruguay, a side I had success with in this tournament back in 2011 and who I believe can serve me well again here. I’m fully expecting Uruguay to win their group and win it in some style and that should mean they avoid Argentina in the next round. It does mean they would run into Brazil potentially in the semi-final but I don’t mind that looking at Brazil’s squad. I don’t rate their chances at all.
Uruguay are always going to be a threat with Luis Suarez up front but the likes of Edinson Cavani, Abel Hernandez and Diego Rolan will give him plenty of support. We know Uruguay’s defence will be tight, it usually is and if the draw opens up for them as it has the potential to do I can see them going a long way in this event.
I’m going to chance a side with my second pick. It was actually a team I took in this tournament at a big price last year but who I’m happy to take again this year and that is Ecuador. If we look at the 2018 World Cup qualifying Ecuador are joint top with Uruguay with four wins from six matches with the only defeat coming to Colombia.
Already Ecuador have been to Argentina and won in that campaign and they’ve seen off Uruguay along the way as well. It isn’t ideal that Felipe Caicedo has been ruled out of this tournament but in Enner Valencia and Fidel Martinez they still have some dangerous players at this level. At 33/1 they look worth a small pick here.
Tips
Back Uruguay to win Copa America Centenario (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 11.00 with Paddy Power (1/3 1-2)
Back them here:
Back Ecuador to win Cope America Centenario (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 34.00 with Skybet (1/3 1-2)
Back them here:
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