Before we move into the final week of the Cricket World Cup group stage, there is a double header of action in the tournament which begins in Leeds as Pakistan take on Afghanistan in a significant match in Leeds.
Pakistan can still make it into the semi-finals of this competition but they will need to win out if they are going to do that. That starts here while Afghanistan are looking to leave the tournament with a major scalp to their name.
AllSportsBetting Podcast
Kev and Steve are back to discuss a big match for Pakistan as they take on Afghanistan in a match they need to win. Kev gives his thoughts on whether they will win and provides Steve with the best bets on for the contest. Click play below to listen.
Pakistan
It has been a rollercoaster campaign for Pakistan so far but did anyone ever expect any different? It is the way they seem to do things. The positive for them though is that they have won their last two matches with a comfort and a bit of authority which suggests that they are finding their best form at the right time. I regularly say these tournaments are not about how you start, more so how you finish so the signs are good for Pakistan from that standpoint.
The big reason for the Pakistan turnaround has been their consistency with the bat all of a sudden. The key members of their top five are standing up and being counted and finally putting up the runs which allows the bowling attack to do its thing. They have won batting first and chasing in their last two matches which I always think is the mark of a good side so they are dangerous from here on in.
Afghanistan
After a baptism of fire in the tournament at the beginning of it, Afghanistan have been a lot more competitive in their last couple of outings. I think one of the reasons for that has been the fact they have taken on Asian opposition who they are familiar with from events such as the Asia Cup. Having established a competitiveness, their task now is to deliver a win before they leave these shores. They will feel this is a good chance of doing that.
If they are going to get over the line in a match then they just need to be an ounce braver with the bat. They have had little problem batting out the better part of 50 overs in their last three matches but they are yet to get up to that 270-280+ scpre which they would have every chance of winning with. Their bowling is beginning to get the job done so the big question is whether their batsmen can follow suit.
Team News
Unless patience has run out with Mohammad Hafeez, Pakistan are expected to be unchanged from their solid win over New Zealand last time out. If Hafeez is replaced then Asif Ali may be the one to come in.
Aftab Alam has departed the scene for Afghanistan so he will not be available for this match. They have used just about every combination going so picking with XI they will go with needs a psychic to work out.
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Betting
I think the sixes line for this match could be a little on the high side at 8.5. If you take away a late dip against Australia when they were as good as beaten and a few sixes on an absolute road against England, Afghanistan have hit five sixes in five matches and I’m not convinced they are going to fare much better here. There aren’t many natural hitters on the Pakistan side and with plenty of overs of medium pace and mystery spin coming down I don’t expect them to go all that big either. Under 8.5 sixes works for me here.
I have had a fair amount of success taking the performance of Afghanistan captain Gulbadin Naib and his line has only gone up to 35.5 which I still think is well within his range. He has scored 107, 67 and 87 in his last three matches, against England, India and Bangladesh respectively. In the last match against Bangladesh he scored 47 with the bat and 40 in the field so he has more than one way of covering this. An average match with bat and ball gets him up to 36pts while a good match with either does to. With all that in mind I’ll take the over.
I’ll also take a couple of top batsmen in this match. Haris Sohail and Samiullah Shinwari both showed form in their previous outing and they look acceptable prices to top score here. Sohail has made 89 and 68 in his last two matches and has been finding the middle of the bat regularly while Shinwari made 49 on what was his first appearance of the tournament against Bangladesh which was a top scoring effort. At 7/1 and 13/1 respectively they look overpriced to me.
Tips
WON – Back Under 8.5 sixes for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Betfair
Back S.Shinwari Top Afghanistan Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 14.00 with Betfair
Back them here:
Back G.Naib’s Performance – Over 35.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.85 with 888sport
Back H.Sohail Top Pakistan Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 with 888sport
Back them here:
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