The venue that will hold the final stages Cricket World Cup action for the first time on Sunday when Pakistan and South Africa do battle in a huge match for both sides at Lord’s. They could have been forgiven for thinking their tournament was over but England’s recent demise has kept them interested…. for now.
It hasn’t been the campaign that either of these sides will have wanted when they arrived in England but a win here could yet launch a charge for the semi-final, however remote the chances of that happening look right now.
Pakistan
One good thing for Pakistan is that they have had a week off since their defeat to India last week. That will have given them the time to get their niggles looked at and get everyone fit and firing, but it would also have allowed them time to take stock of what they are doing right and where they are going wrong and formulate some plans to stop them derailing their charge any further.
To be fair I don’t think Pakistan are a million miles away from going well. Earlier in the summer their bowling was a disaster zone but that area of their game has been fine in this tournament. They have got off to good starts with the bat but they haven’t capitalised on them and finished their innings off. If they can start putting good quality last 20 overs together in their batting efforts there is no reason why they can’t win their last four matches.
South Africa
I would imagine the Proteas will be just wanting to get out of England now and head home and face the consequences. This has been a campaign to forget from start to finish and even when they put in their best performance of the tournament thus far they were still beaten. They are as good as out of the qualification proceedings now so it will be interesting to see if they can use a little bit of freedom to just go and show their best stuff.
Their woes have been simple. They just haven’t batted well enough in this competition. They always came here relying on their bowling attack but when injury decimated that part of their set up they were always needing snookers. Faf du Plessis and his men could do with winning their last three matches to at least salvage some pride, even if it all means the same thing as in they fail to make it into the last four.
Team News
One of the reasons why Pakistan have not been able to finish off their batting innings successfully is because Shoaib Malik has looked like a fish out of water in that number six position. Expect that to be rectified here with Asif Ali coming back in for him.
It is hard to see where South Africa go from here and having put in their best performance of the campaign last time out they might just decide to field an unchanged side. If they do change things up David Miller could warrant a return.
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Betting
I fancy a few bets for this match with the first of them being under 58.5 boundaries. This looks very high for these two batting line ups against these two bowling attacks and so I’m going to take the under accordingly. I would argue Pakistan are batting nicely enough to cover this but there have been no runs in their lower order and even if Pakistan stick a fair total up South Africa aren’t hitting many boundaries. Their own boundary count in this tournament read: 25, 26, 16, 15 and 22 so they are going to need their best effort to get us half this total I don’t see South Africa going well with the bat here but they have enough with the ball to keep things below this line.
One South Africa batsman who has gone well enough in this tournament under the radar is Rassie van der Dussen and as a result I think he can cover a run line of 26.5. His tournament so far has seen him put together runs of 50, 41, 22 and 67* highlighting the good form he is in. He has batted in four ODIs against Pakistan, in South Africa earlier this year, and he made 50+ in three of them so he can go well against this opponent and he’s hitting it well. 27 runs shouldn’t be beyond him.
The last main bet I’m going to have on this contest is the performance of Andile Phehlukwayo which is 41.5 which I think is a bit low once again. He won’t take the new ball or anything like that so he’ll be bowling the overs which Pakistan have been struggling in throughout this tournament so far so that could pick him up a few cheap wickets. He has shown in this tournament that he is hitting the ball nicely when he put a good innings together against India. A combination of the two should see him past 41.5 once again here.
I’ll also take a punt on Imad Wasim to top score at a pretty daft price. He can hold the bat down the innings, as he was showing against India last weekend when the rain came and earlier in the year he put together an ODI innings of 43* and 47* in that series earlier in the year so there is something about this attack that he likes the look of. He was well on his way to 50 against India last week so if Rabada and Ngidi can sort out the Pakistan top order you never know how close Wasim gets to top scoring. I’ll pay to see how close it is though.
Tips
Back Under 58.5 boundaries for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill
Back it here:
WON – Back R.van der Dussen – Over 26.5 runs for a 4/10 stake at 1.85 with BetVictor
Back him here:
WON – Back A.Phehlukwayo’s Performance – Over 41.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.85 with 888sport
Back him here:
Back I.Wasim Top Pakistan Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral
Back him here:
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