The Ashes is done and a five match ODI series begins later in the week but before that England and Australia will meet in a one off T20 International in Cardiff on Monday afternoon.
These individual matches can often lack context but that isn’t the case with this one as the World T20 is getting ever closer so we might see this match taken as seriously as the Tests which have preceded it.
England won their last T20 against New Zealand earlier in the year and they will be out to not just win this match but to play in the style they did throughout the limited overs matches against the Kiwis.
Australia will play their first T20 International of 2015 in this match and that is a weird occurrence in itself given that we’re almost in September. Having not played for so long each match from here on in is likely to have added significance.
England have a couple of selection issues to ponder. James Vince isn’t in England’s ODI squad but he has shown in both the T20 Blast quarter final and semi-final just how good he is and so Eoin Morgan and co might take this chance to rest an Alex Hales or Jason Roy to look at Vince. Reece Topley could be afforded the same opportunity.
Australia have made plenty of changes both from their last T20 match and indeed the Ashes which has just finished. Regular T20 captain Aaron Finch misses out with injury while Mitchell Johnson is rested. James Faulkner is suspended for a drink driving incident while he was with Lancashire which means there is no rest for Mitchell Starc. Marcus Stoinis makes his debut in this match and Steve Smith will lead the side in Finch’s absence.
These international matches are always hard to pick winners of because the sides play so infrequently. Sometimes there is a clear motivation on one side of the fence but I’m not sure there is that here.
I do fancy England to win though. I say that for two reasons. Firstly I believe they have a stronger batting line up than Australia. Australia have Mitchell Marsh slated to come in at five and while he’s a positive player he’s hardly put bat on ball in the Test matches and then Stoinis at six is on debut which isn’t ideal.
Perhaps the biggest reason why I like England though is pace doesn’t really get it done at Cardiff and Cameron Boyce aside that’s all Australia will go in with here. England have Moeen Ali and Adil Rashid while Chris Woakes likes to vary his pace too. That bowling style can be more effective so I like England here.
Another bet I like is under 11.5 sixes. There has been two previous T20 Internationals on this ground with 129 currently the highest score. The first match didn’t have a single six and the second one had five.
The Cardiff wicket is never an easy one for batting and although there’s some big hitters on show here the rain in the lead up to the match coupled with a tired square – so tired a recent One Day Cup game was abandoned here recently due to the wicket being dangerous – tells me an 11.5 line is a couple too high.
Back England to win T20 International for a 4/10 stake at 2.20 with Paddy Power
Back Under 11.5 sixes for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill
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