There is one ranking event match left of 2022 in the snooker world and it comes along on Sunday when Mark Selby takes on Luca Brecel in the final of the English Open inside the Brentwood Centre in Essex.
The two men will be competing for the £80,000 first prize and the Steve Davis Trophy and given the way they have both played this week whoever hoists the trophy aloft at the end of the best of 17 showdown will be a worthy champion.
Mark Selby
A lot was made at the start of the week how this is the first year since 2009 that Mark Selby hasn’t won a tournament. I don’t know whether that has spurred him on to find his best form but the longer the week has gone on the better he has got and he goes into this final as the favourite to come out with silverware and extend that run into 2023. Everything since the last 16 might have been a bonus for the Jester because Shaun Murphy had a sitter of a black to knock him out at that stage.
That seemed to fire Selby into life and in the second part of his quarter final win over Ali Carter and the entirety of his semi-final victory against Neil Robertson we saw a more attacking and aggressive Selby and he looked very good in the process. He scored heavily during those periods and when you consider the quality of his tactical game, if he can merge the two together then he is going to be a very tough nut to crack in this final.
Luca Brecel
It doesn’t always work out that the best player in a tournament gets the chance to play for the trophy in the final such is the strength in depth in the game these days but Luca Brecel has been that and he does get that opportunity. The one thing you know about Brecel is when he fancies the job he is very hard to beat, can beat anybody and can maintain his form throughout a tournament. He tends to lose very early in an event or threaten to win it.
Brecel has taken care of some big players this week. Judd Trump was dispatched for the loss of just the one frame in the quarter final and then Mark Allen only managed one frame more than that against him in his semi-final. To come through those tests for the loss of just three frames is a huge positive but the concern would be how he will react either if he falls behind in this final or if Selby stays with him and it gets really close.
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Head-to-head
These two have met on seven previous occasions and while Mark Selby has the advantage as you would expect, that advantage is only 4-3, although he is slightly further in front on the frame count with him leading 27-22 in that department. The two have never met in a tournament later than the quarter final so this will be the first time they meet in a final. It will also be their first encounter over more than one session of play so while history is slightly on the side of Selby, how much we can take from it remains to be seen.
Betting
I think everyone is hoping for a close final here but I’m not convinced we are going to get one. I think Luca Brecel will either get out in front early and carry on his form and blow Mark Selby away or Mark Selby will edge in front and then put the squeeze on the Belgian. I really think Brecel merits respect here but I’d have liked him more in this final if he had played from behind in the event or had he had a challenge in the latter part of it.
This tournament feels very reminiscent of the UK Championship last season where Brecel breezed into the final but when he met his match in the final he couldn’t go with Zhao Xintong. I wouldn’t be as confident on the chances of Selby had he not started scoring but I think back three years to when he won this thing and he bubbled along nicely and then blitzed Dave Gilbert in the final with a blitz of scores and awesome snooker. I fancy we might see that again here so it is Selby with a bit in hand for me.
Tips
Back M.Selby (-1.5 frames) to beat L.Brecel for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with William Hill
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