After almost two years of qualifying, 24 nations are heading to France for Euro2016 each dreaming of glory. This is a tournament which even the so called minnows will fancy their chances in with Denmark and Greece both upsetting the odds to land the title in the last 24 years while the Czech Republic were also unlikely finalists in that time.
Recent Winners
2012 – Spain
2008 – Spain
2004 – Greece
2000 – France
1996 – Germany
1992 – Denmark
The Format
Usually this competition involved 16 teams but with commercially the order of the day, in order to get more money making potential into the event it has been extended to 24 teams which means from 31 matches in the tournament we now have 51 – excellent news for us punters potentially!
The 24 teams have been divided up into six groups of four with the top two in each group plus the four best third placed sides going through to the knockout stages so for the first fortnight of the competition we have a raft of matches to lose just eight teams – 33% of the field. That is important to remember when betting on side markets.
From the last 16 onwards the tournament is a straight knockout ending with the final in Paris on July 10th where the winners will be crowned.
Main Challengers
France are the tournament hosts and as such they are the favourites too. The champions of 2000 look to have a very daunting squad and when you think the likes of Mathieu Valbuena, Karim Benzema, Hatem Ben Arfa and Kevin Gameiro couldn’t even get in it either for footballing reasons or not, this is a team who are going to take a lot of beating.
Germany are the world champions and have to be respected off the back of that because world champions have a good record in this tournament with France and Spain winning this tournament as world champions since the turn of the millennium. Germany powered their way to victory in Brazil two years ago but this is a much changed squad from that one and nothing like as consistent as that team were.
Spain go into the tournament as the defending champions having won the last two renewals of this competition but their best days look to be behind them although they bounced back from World Cup disappointment by winning nine out of 10 matches in qualification. Whether they can win this tournament without former stars such as Xavi, David Villa and Xabi Alonso remains to be seen.
Italy were beaten in the final in Kiev four years ago and on the face of it don’t look anything like as strong now but we know when it comes to tournaments that they can deliver the goods so it would be foolish to write them off. You would have to say the draw hasn’t been very kind and that is a big concern.
Home Nations
England go into the tournament off the back of a perfect qualifying campaign. That stands Roy Hodgson’s men in good order and they head to France with a young, exciting and dynamic squad particularly in attacking areas. The area of concern for them would be in defensive parts but they have landed a lovely part of the draw and should go well.
Wales are in the same group as England and having gone toe to toe with Belgium and seen off Bosnia and Israel in qualifying they shouldn’t be written off but if they are to achieve anything of note in the campaign they need to wrap Gareth Bale up in cotton wool because there isn’t a lot in their side apart from him.
Northern Ireland have qualified for a major tournament for the first time since 1986 and will be making their European Championship debut here but they qualified on merit and are well set up and organised but they could have been handed an easier draw than Germany, Poland and Ukraine.
Republic of Ireland haven’t been dealt a good hand either. They have been dumped in a tricky group with Italy, Belgium and Sweden and there is nothing easy about that it should be said. That said Ireland always have a good spirit and love being the underdog and we saw they can hold their nerve in the big matches when they came through the playoffs.
Dark Horses
Belgium have been the talked up side for a few years but I’ve always had this suspicion that they are overrated and maybe their time has come. I think they were better three years ago when their top players were regular starters for big clubs and in fine form. That isn’t so much the case now and missing Vincent Kompany won’t help.
Portugal are attracting plenty of money in the run up to the tournament. I suspect that is partly on the draw which has come out favourably for them but also because they have Ronaldo in their ranks as well as a pretty decent defence. They have been semi-finalists as recently as 2004 and are well equipped for a decent run if Ronaldo fires.
Croatia arguably boast the best midfield in the tournament but like so many of the sides heading to France you have to wonder about their defence. They’re another side who I suspect might have been better a couple of years ago than now but they have a nice group which they’ll come through either in front of or behind Spain and who knows how far they can go from there.
Austria have shortened remarkably in recent times. This young, energetic, well balanced and creative side have a lot to like about them and there isn’t really too many weaknesses. They have a nice mix of established players in the big leagues and those ready to announce themselves and will be popular at 40/1.
Betting
Before we get stuck into selections we have to answer the age old question. Do we want to back the best team or squad in the tournament or do we pick apart the draw and try and find the value? Usually I’d go for the latter but I’m actually going to do both for this tournament which is likely to be slightly quirky with the new format.
I really fancy France to win the tournament. Home advantage is crucial for them. They won the World Cup on home soil in 1998 and usually rise to the occasion in front of their own fans. That is one positive. The second is the absolute cakewalk of a draw they’ve landed in the group stage where Romania, Switzerland and Albania will oppose them. If, as expected, they come out on top in that group they will have a third placed side in the Last 16 before a group runner up in the quarter final which in a worst way would be Portugal so you’ve got to think they are a good thing for the semi-finals.
From there, much like England in 1996 the wave of public support will be at fever pitch and the French can really use home advantage to run for home. Few crowds get behind their sides as passionately as the French do so even at 3/1 they’re my main bet in this tournament.
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That is the best side angle covered now to explore the draw and try and pick out areas which could open up and allow for dark horses or outsiders to come through.
Just looking at the knockout draw and the top half has the winners of Groups B, D and F with a couple of runners up in the other game. That could be England, Spain and Portugal as winners but neither Spain nor Portugal are guaranteed to win the group.
The bottom half will have the winners of Groups A, C and E which looks like being France, Germany and either Italy or Belgium so automatically that looks a lot tougher than the top half. The runners up of D which is likely to be Spain or Croatia is also in that bottom half so that becomes a bit more of a minefield and potentially the place to avoid chancing big priced shots.
Let’s go right to the top of the draw where the runners up of Group A meet the runners up of Group C in the Last 16. If the tournament goes to potential seedings that would see Switzerland taking on Poland. The only problem with that is I’m not so sure Poland will finish second in Group C. I’m not actually convinced that Switzerland are runners up in Group A but that’s by the by.
Ukraine might have needed to come through the playoffs to make it here but they were always only fighting for second place in a group which contained Spain and the fact Slovakia got off to such a quick start found Ukraine out but there is no doubting the form of the Eastern Europeans now.
Their only defeat in 12 matches came against Spain but they go into this competition off the back of four wins on the trot. The latest two of those wins were over Romania and Albania and if something does happen to Switzerland as luck would have it that is who Ukraine would face in the Last 16. Spain are likely opponents in the quarter final but it could be that Croatia snatch that spot and then England are worst case semi-final opponents.
With tricky wingers in Andriy Yarmolenko and Yevhen Konoplyanka Ukraine are always going to be dangerous on the counter attack and I suspect this will be a tournament for the counter attacks so for me the co-hosts of four years ago tick every box in terms of an outright bet for an outsider.
My second outsider is slightly riskier in that we would need Austria to overcome Portugal and win Group F but if they manage to do that the draw would open up immediately. They’ll play the runners up of Belgium or Italy’s group in the Last 16, perfectly winnable, and then worst case scenario they will face England or Russia in the quarter final. After that they would face the winners of the section above in the semi-finals so someone from this quarter has a fantastic chance to go deep.
I don’t think there is a lot between Austria and Portugal. If you take Ronaldo out of Portugal all you have is a solid defence so if you can keep him quiet then there is the chance of overcoming them. Austria pose many more problems.
Austria only dropped two points in the whole of their qualifying campaign which was a decent effort because their group wasn’t a piece of cake with Russia and Sweden in it. That was done largely off the back of a solid defence where they conceded just the five goals in the 10 matches and with Christian Fuchs, Sebastian Prodl and Spurs’ Kevin Wimmer in that area you can see how that is so reliable.
They’re not short of good options going forward either. Marc Janko has a good record at this level while Marko Arnautovic could be a star of the tournament. They are all given stability by the quality of David Alaba in midfield. The Bayern Munich man really adds a star quality to the side and he, and his teammates, can send Austria deep in this tournament.
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Tips
Back France to win Euro2016 for a 4/10 stake at 4.20 with NetBet
Back them here:
Back Ukraine to win Euro2016 (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Bet365 (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
Back Austria to win Euro2016 (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
