The final game of another busy day of action at Euro 2020 concludes in Amsterdam where Holland will look to move to the fringes of qualifying for the knockout stage when they play host to an Austria side who can play with a bit of freedom after an opening win.
Both these teams start out with three points to their name so top spot in the group heading into the final set of matches is at stake in this one. A draw would probably put both teams through but hopefully they don’t see it that way.
Where to watch
We go over to BBC1 in the UK to be able to watch this match with the build-up to the clash beginning at 7.30pm and the action getting underway at 8pm.
Netherlands
There was a lot to like about the Netherlands in their opening match. They look like they have adopted an attack at all costs approach and with the attacking players they have in their squad nobody can argue with that strategy. While we saw the good side to their game against Ukraine when they were going forward but we also saw the bad part of it too in that they can’t defend. That is a fair trade off when things go well but you open yourselves up to criticism when it does.
A key feature of the play in the win over the Ukraine in the first game was how high up the full backs were. Without a genuine holding midfielder their centre-backs are going to be exposed quite often in this competition. That then will put the pressure on the attack and if you were going to be critical of them in that first game it would be that they didn’t convert as many opportunities as they might have done. That is something that could hurt them when they go into a match with a defensively proficient outfit.
Austria
I’m not really sure what we can take out of that first game for Austria other than the fact that they could handle the pressure of the favourites tag. That isn’t necessarily something that should be taken for granted because in modern day football it is a whole lot easier to play as an underdog than the favourite. When you look at this group, Austria really had to beat North Macedonia to have an even chance of coming out of the group so credit to them for doing that.
It will be interesting to see how Austria approach these two matches from here on in. The chances are a point in either will be enough to progress even as a best third placed side but if they finish third they’ll likely meet a group winner in the next round whereas if they can push on and win the group they would get a third placed side of their own. I guess just making it through is the overriding aim but the way Italy look so far coming through in second or third could lead to a short lived knockout campaign.
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Team News
The Netherlands are hopeful that Matthijs de Ligt will be fit for this match after he missed their opening game. They could do with him after what we saw in that first game. If he isn’t fit Jurrien Timber is likely to stay in the side.
Austria will be without Marko Arnautovic for this match after he was given a one match ban for something he said during the win over North Macedonia. He is still building up his fitness so wouldn’t have played the full match anyway. Julian Baumgartlinger could play a larger role.
Betting
I like the idea of there being goals in this match. We’ve seen in the matches in this group so far that this is an extremely attack minded section in the competition and given that both of these teams can play with the freedom of three points on the board I don’t see why they wouldn’t have a go and look to win the match. The Dutch were as attacking as any side in the competition in the first game while Austria never lacked going forward. It is the weakness of both defensively which caught my eye though so I’m fully expecting over 2.5 goals to land once again here.
I’ll also have a bet on Denzel Dumfries to have a shot on target. I couldn’t believe how far forward he was playing against Ukraine but the fact that Patrick van Aanholt was no further back on the other side suggests to be that it is a tactical nuance of this Duch side under Frank de Boer. Dumfries looked a huge unit on that right side who will have the beating of most full-backs in the air but he got in behind a few times as well. You can get 6/4 that the PSV man finds the target and that will do me.
Tips
Back Over 2.5 goals for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Betfair
Back it here:
Back D.Dumfries 1+ Shots on Target for a 2/10 stake at 2.50 with Betfred
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