The knockout stages of Euro 2020 don’t officially begin until the weekend but for Croatia and Scotland they start on Tuesday evening when the two meet at Hampden Park in a win or bust clash in Group D of the competition.
The equation for these two is now very simple. Win and you move into the last 16. Anything else and you exit the tournament at the first opportunity. The stakes are high in this one so this is sure to be a very competitive contest.
Where to watch
You can watch this match in full on the ITV4 channel in the UK. The build-up to this one and the other game begins at 7pm with the kick off in Glasgow coming at 8pm.
Croatia
Given that they went into this tournament off the back of making the final of the World Cup, Croatia have been very disappointing so far. They failed to make any sort of impression on England in their opening match and you would be hard pressed to say they stood out and did anything special in their second match against the Czech Republic. They were unfortunate to concede a penalty in that match but they still never looked like winning it.
The real surprise for me so far in the tournament is just how little Croatia have created. They still have some very creative players in their ranks but they have barely had a shot at goal and while they haven’t really been stretched defensively, you get the feeling that when they are teams can have some joy against them. They will certainly need their best performance of the group so far if they are going to get the win which will see them escape it.
Scotland
In essence, although they only have one point to their name from their opening two matches thus far, all Scotland have lacked is a goal. They go into this game knowing that if they are to remain in the competition that has to change here and they have to find the back of the net. They have had chances in their first two games but when the pressure moment has come to put the ball in the net they have either encountered a great save or they have snatched at the opportunity.
Much like their opponents here, Scotland haven’t been troubled defensively in this tournament. The two goals they have conceded were from a second phase of a set piece and a wonder goal so they aren’t being opened up at all. That is very much a positive and if they can find the back of the net in this match they will be confident that they can hold on and progress. The one question mark about them would be whether they are a little too predictable when they attack in that it all goes though Andy Robertson.
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Team News
Rangers defender Borna Barisic has joined up with the Croatia squad for a match on a ground he’ll know well from his Ibrox exploits. He has had a back injury so he lacks fitness but could be an option off the bench if required.
Scotland will be without star midfielder Billy Gilmour after he tested positive for Covid-19. That will be a real blow for the Scots with Steve Clarke having to decide whether to play someone like Stuart Armstrong or move Scott McTominay into midfield and bring Jack Hendry back in.
Betting
If you pushed me into backing a winner of this match then I would plump for Scotland. I’ve not been all that impressed with Croatia and they might be there for the taking for Scotland but I’m all too aware that they have never come out of a group in a tournament so this would be a pretty big deal for them. That makes me swerve the match betting – although I would say if you are betting on the winner you may as well include the draw as that is the one outcome of the three that surely won’t happen given the situation of the group.
It is that situation of the group which makes me think we will see goals here. We’ve seen in the first three groups that these battles between the lesser sides in the section going into the final game can catch fire quickly whenever a goal is scored. This game that will be even more the case because whoever concedes the first goal here is going to have to open up and get back into the game because they are out unless they score twice. There is no way this game won’t open up at some stage given that both teams have to win and have no other option. If an early goal forces that to happen sooner rather than later then happy days. Either way I like over 2.5 goals in this must win clash.
Tips
Back Over 2.5 goals for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with William Hill
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