The day England have been waiting for has finally arrived as they will walk out at Wembley Stadium in front of some sort of a crowd in tournament football for the first time in 25 years on Sunday afternoon, to take on a Croatia side who sent them packing from the World Cup three years ago.
Whether that will act as motivation in some sort of revenge mission for England remains to be seen but Croatia tend to specialise in breaking the hearts of the Three Lions and will love nothing more than to spoil their party here too.
Where to watch
We are back on BBC1 for viewers of this tournament in the UK. There is a lengthy lead up to this match which begins at 1pm before the game itself kicks off at 2pm.
England
There is no doubt that there is a fair bit of pressure on England in this match and indeed the tournament. Some of that comes from their excellent run to the semi-final in Russia and some of it comes from the outstanding level of talent they have at their disposal, especially in attacking areas where this is as exciting a generation of footballers that England have had in quite a while. Throw in the home factor and it is easy to see why there is scrutiny on England to deliver here.
One thing which has dogged England since the last World Cup, and which continues to do so today, is their defence. They just don’t have the same level of defensive talent that they have in attacking areas and that is very much a weakness for them. The goalkeeper is another concern, although to be fair to Jordan Pickford, for as flaky as he looks at club level he is yet to truly let England down on the international scene. England need to be positive here though both for their chances of winning and the morale of the nation.
Croatia
Clearly Croatia find it quite easy to motivate themselves against England. They stopped England from qualifying for the World Cup in 2008 and then knocked them out in the semi-final of that competition three years ago. They didn’t maintain that when England knocked them out of the first UEFA Nations League but losing that match and winning the other two doesn’t seem like too much of a trade off from their point of view.
Motivated or not, this Croatia side still has the ability to trouble England in this tournament, but at the same time they have a frailty of their own defensively and it will be interesting to see if they have it about them to go out and look to win the game. I only say that because on paper this is the hardest test for both teams in the group so a draw is certainly not a bad result for either. Croatia’s best form of defence might just be to attack anyway.
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Team News
England are near enough certain to be without Harry Maguire for the opening match. He is back in training but this game surely comes too soon for him. Jordan Henderson is still getting back to full fitness too so is unlikely to start the game.
Croatia have issues defensively because Dejan Lovren is out of the tournament so they have to mix and match a little there. The other choice which Zlatko Dalic has to decide upon is who leads the line for his team. Andrej Kramaric is likely to be that man.
Betting
I’ll go with a couple of bets in this match. The first of those is for both teams to score. I expect a quick start from Croatia here and they certainly have the quality to find the back of the net but a trend of this aging side is that they tire quite badly and with the strength England will have off the bench I back them to find the net the longer the game goes on. That World Cup semi-final saw both teams scoring as did that crucial Nations League match. I think this can complete the trio with both teams finding the back of the net.
The other bet I like is for Inter Milan midfielder Marcelo Brozovic to pick up a yellow card in the match. He is something of a card machine. In his last 20 competitive internationals he has been booked 10 times, including in that Nations League decider between these two at Wembley Stadium. He goes into the tournament having picked up eight yellows and a red for Inter Milan this season so he is certainly well known to referees which is often a problem for a player. Whether it is from the start or when legs tire, Brozovic is going to have Jack Grealish in and around him who has the ability to draw fouls. Add in the likes of Mason Mount, Jadon Sancho, Raheem Sterling and Marcus Rashford who could all be on the pitch at times and you’ve got to think someone will drag a yellow out of the central midfielder.
Tips
Back Both teams to score for a 3/10 stake at 2.25 with Coral
Back it here:
Back M.Brozovic to be shown a card for a 1/10 stake at 3.25 with Bet365
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