One of the more competitive betting markets for Euro 2024 is the one for the top goalscorer where a number of the leading attacking players in world football not just European will be heading to Germany looking to land the Golden Boot.
Cristiano Ronaldo and Patrik Schick shared the top scoring honours when this tournament was last held three years ago. Both men will be in Germany looking to retain the crown but some elite forwards will be out to deny him.
Recent Top Goalscorers
2020 – Cristiano Ronaldo & Patrik Schick (5 goals)
2016 – Antoine Griezmann (6 goals)
2012 – 6 players tied on 3 goals
2008 – David Villa (4 goals)
2004 – Milan Baros (5 goals)
2000 – Patrick Kluivert & Savo Milosevic (5 goals)
1996 – Alan Shearer (5 goals)
Market Leaders
Kylian Mbappe is all the rage for the Golden Boot at Euro 2024 and he can be backed at 5/1 to land it. The new Real Madrid recruit landed this award at the World Cup 18 months ago and has had another decent enough season with PSG. He will be at the front of a French attack which is expected to go well in the tournament but I don’t think the French have the kind draw that others have which could be an issue. If Griezmann gets the penalties that might be another concern. He has to be respected but I’m happy to leave him alone at the prices.
Harry Kane is an 11/2 second favourite to get the Golden Boot which he landed at the 2018 World Cup. The big positive for those backing Kane is that he will be on penalties should England get any of them and he is clearly their best number nine so unless he gets injured at any point he is likely to be on the pitch for the entirety of the Three Lions’ stay in the tournament. He was scoring goals for fun for Bayern Munich this season and the creativity in this England side should create a lot of chances for him. I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him but 11/2 isn’t really my sort of price.
Cristiano Ronaldo is next in the betting at 14/1 but the big issue for anyone backing him will be whether he plays as much as some of the others in the market. I would imagine he’ll play most games but his days as a definite 90 minute man with the wealth of attacking talent that Portugal have at their disposal in this tournament. Questions will also come over the strength of the Saudi league but Ronaldo is a born goalscorer, I’m just not sure he is guaranteed to be on the pitch enough, especially if Portugal win their first two and qualify and he is rested for the potential boot filler against Georgia.
The only other player in the betting who is shorter than 20/1 is the Belgium captain Romelu Lukaku, who surely won’t be short of motivation to deliver in this potentially final chance for himself and a few others to win a tournament. He is another born goalscorer who will get penalties but the questions revolve around how deep Belgium will go in the event and also whether they have the sort of group that he could smash up. Ukraine and Slovakia don’t concede many goals as a rule but Romania should be ripe for cherry picking. He is 16/1 to win the award which is a perfectly fair price.
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Betting
I always go in search of a bit of value in this market because an injury or your player being rested for a game, which after a long season could happen to the main protagonists in this market should their team win their opening two matches, and you are either out of the equation or behind the eight ball. You would think the winner would come from someone who goes deep in the event but actually in the Euros that isn’t necessarily the case. In this tournament you have to fill your boots in the group stage before teams shut up shop in the latter stages.
With that in mind I’m going to play a Manchester United pair for this tournament. Rasmus Hojlund is in a Denmark side who are in a group with England, Slovenia and Serbia so he isn’t going to be troubled by sides sticking two banks of four in his way or anything like that. You would say Slovenia would be the most defensive side of the three but he scored when those two sides met in qualifying while the Serbia and England defences aren’t going to cause him to miss any kip at night. Only the four market leaders for this award scored more goals in qualifying than the Dane but when you consider that eight of the 14 goals Lukaku scored came against Estonia and Azerbaijan, five of the 10 Ronaldo scored were against Luxembourg and Liechtenstein, four of the nine from Mbappe against Gibraltar and two of the seven Kane goals being against Malta, the seven Hojlund managed, only one of which was against a lowly nation, stand up well. At 40/1 I think he’s a decent price in a Denmark side who could well go on a deep run.
I’ve already highlighted Portugal as a team that I expect to run hot in this tournament and while Cristiano Ronaldo is a goal threat for them, I’m not convinced he plays all the time and so it might be that better value among this side is Bruno Fernandes. The Manchester United attacking midfielder scored six goals in qualifying and since Jan 1 2021, the Portuguese player has played 41 times for his country and scored 20 goals in that time so he is averaging pretty much a goal every other game. Portugal have a group where they could really fill their boots with Georgia having conceded 18 goals in eight qualifying games, Turkey seven in eight including in both games against Armenia and two against Latvia, and Czechia six in eight games. Fernandes is guaranteed to play throughout barring injury so the 50/1 on him top scoring looks big.
Tips
Back R.Hojlund Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-5)
Back B.Fernandes Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-5)
