It is the Battle of Britain version two on Saturday afternoon when Wales take on Northern Ireland for a place in the quarter finals of Euro 2016. You probably wouldn’t have expected either to be competitive when it came to a quarter final spot before the tournament but that is the way it has played out.
Wales made it into the last 16 courtesy of pipping England to the win in Group B while Northern Ireland managed damage limitation successfully against Germany to make it through as one of the best third placed sides.
The Welsh go into this match full of confidence despite their defeat to England during the group stages. They played arguably their best ever match against Russia in their final game in the group to seal top spot but I’m not going to get too carried away with that because Russia are an awful side.
In Gareth Bale the Welsh have the joint leading scorer in the tournament and he is likely to be the biggest threat here although this is a team who largely rely on keeping things solid and seeing what they can get at the other end. With Bale around they are always dangerous which is a huge positive.
Key Man
It can’t be anyone else other than Gareth Bale really can it? He has lit the tournament up so far with his passion, his movement and his quality. Two of his goals have been free kicks and we know he is dangerous with them but anywhere around the penalty area he comes alive and can create a piece of magic.
It has been largely backs against the wall for Northern Ireland in this tournament so far. They have had the least possession of anyone in the competition and not many other stats favour them but as Leicester showed in the Premier League more often than not the only stat you need to worry about is the scoreline.
Northern Ireland went into this tournament in good form and we shouldn’t forget that. They will have known they were up against it when they took on Poland and Germany but they got the job done in the match they thought they could win and I’m sure they will think they can win this one too.
Key Man
After his heroics of the last match the key man for Northern Ireland could well be their goalkeeper Michael McGovern. Having left Hamilton at the end of the season McGovern is in the shop window and another performance like the one he gave against Germany could make the stopper a rich man. His defence will hope to give him better protection but if they fail with that he’ll need to bail them out again.
Team News
Chris Coleman has to make a decision on Gareth Bale’s partner up front. Sam Vokes got the job against Russia and while it would seem strange to change that side, Hal Robson-Kanu has done nothing wrong so far in the tournament.
Northern Ireland are set to start with the same side that began against Germany which means that Kyle Lafferty remains on the bench to begin with and there will still be no sign of Will Grigg, the man whose chant has gone viral.
Head to Head
As you would expect Wales have had the better of things in past meetings between these two sides. Of 34 meetings they have won 15 and only lost seven with 12 matches ending all square but you have to go back nine matches for the last time Northern Ireland beat Wales.
That said they will know that four of the last six have finished level so recently there hasn’t been an awful lot between the two. They last met earlier in the year in a friendly when Wales needed a late penalty to snatch a 1-1 draw.
Betting
Wales look a little short to me in this match. I accept that they won their group and Northern Ireland only came third but third was the best Northern Ireland could do in that group. Wales impressed against Russia but I saw nothing out of the ordinary or too impressive in their first two matches and I can’t believe Northern Ireland will be as poor or as naïve as Russia were.
When the two sides last met there wasn’t anything between them although I’m sure Wales will be quick to point out there was no Gareth Bale or Aaron Ramsey in that match. All the pressure is on Wales here and it will be interesting to see how they cope with that. They won’t ever have been favourites to win a match of this magnitude before.
Wales can sometimes struggle to break sides down and the longer they go without a goal the more impatient they might become. I’m not completely convinced Wales will win this in 90 minutes. I think Northern Ireland might offer more in this one than people might expect even if it is only on set pieces where they are very strong.
At nearly evens with the half goal start on the Asian lines meaning we get a full win with a draw I’m all for Northern Ireland here but it is the kind of match where I can see a late goal too. If there has been an early goal one of them will need to take a risk to get back into it if they are still behind and that could either force a goal or leave them open to be attacked.
On the flip side both sides are so defence orientated they could invite the other one a little too much and eventually cave in like England did against Wales. However it is played out I fancy a goal late in the second half here.
Tips
Back Northern Ireland (+0.5AH) to beat Wales for a 4/10 stake at 1.93 with Bet365
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