The bigger match of the two that close out Group A of the FIFA World Cup on Tuesday afternoon is the one between the South American side Ecuador and the Africa Cup of Nations winners Senegal in Al Rayyan.
The winner of this match will qualify for the next stage of the tournament and the likelihood is that they will go through to the round of 16 as the runners up to the Netherlands, potentially setting up a knockout clash with England.
Where to watch
This match will be shown on the ITV 4 channel in the UK while the other one is on ITV 1. The short lead up to this one begins at 2.45pm with kick off coming here at 3pm too.
Ecuador
There is a very strong case to be made for Ecuador having been the best team in this group so far. That doesn’t necessarily count for anything when the whistle blows to kick this match off but it does tell us that they fully merit being in the position that they are. That position is for them to just need a draw in this encounter to ensure they come out of the group. A win could see them top it, although the chances are they would need to win by more than the Netherlands beat Qatar by which might not be doable.
Ecuador have seen a lot of the ball in this group but unlike previous sides from their country they use it really well. They pass it well and they have a few technically gifted midfielders who carry the ball to the opposing defensive line. What they also have is a forward who is in excellent form. Because of the way they use and protect the ball their defence is rarely under pressure, as evidenced by the fact that the Netherlands could only muster an xG of 0.11.
Senegal
This probably hasn’t been the campaign that Senegal would have wanted so far but they still have a chance to rectify the situation. They are going to need to up their game for that to happen. I think it is fair to say that this is a team that is missing the influence and the quality of Sadio Mane in the forward areas, but it might be that more of a concern is how they have gone defensively. Edouard Mendy had a mare in the opening game and Qatar created some good chances against them in the second.
The scoreboard would suggest that win over Qatar was a comfortable one but they made very hard work of it. The good thing for them is that they are in no doubt about what they need to do in this match. They have to win else they are out of the tournament so they can formulate a game plan about how they are going to go about that without needing to worry about whether to stick or twist. It does mean the longer they go without getting in front they are going to have to take risks though.
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Team News
Ecuador remain hopeful that Enner Valencia is good to go even though he has been spotted with ice on his knee after both the matches so far. One man who won’t be involved here is Jhegson Mendez who is suspended after picking up two yellow cards.
Senegal coach Aliou Cisse has not declared any more injury issues so he has to decide on the makeup of his side and get the balance between not being easy to beat but having the necessary amount of attacking players on the pitch.
Betting
This is an interesting match, one which the opening goal is going to completely change the dynamic of the contest. If Ecuador score it then Senegal are going to need to find two goals to get themselves back into the tournament if we assume that the Dutch are going to beat Qatar. If Senegal get the opening goal then Ecuador are going to have to push and find the net else it will be them exiting the competition at the final whistle.
If that goal comes early then this could turn into one of those insane final group games which go end to end but if we get to half time without a goal then Senegal are going to need to open right up and take some risks and leave themselves exposed as they chase the goal which could keep them in the competition. Ecuador don’t concede many goals but at the same time they don’t face many teams who are as desperate as Senegal are going to be. This Senegal defence has looked flaky all tournament so I’m happy to chance over 2 goals as I expect a push at the very least even if the second goal comes late on when the losing side throw everyone forward.
Tips
Back Over 2 goals for a 3/10 stake at 1.84 with Bet365
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