The second Grand Slam of the year begins on Sunday when the stars of the tennis world head to Paris for the French Open, the showpiece event of the clay court season.
Roger Federer may have pulled out earlier in the week but this tournament doesn’t lack for big names nor potential big stories. Stan Wawrinka arrives in the French capital as the defending champion and looking to defend his title.
Recent Champions
2015 – Stan Wawrinka
2014 – Rafael Nadal
2013 – Rafael Nadal
2012 – Rafael Nadal
2011 – Rafael Nadal
2010 – Rafael Nadal
2009 – Roger Federer
2008 – Rafael Nadal
2007 – Rafael Nadal
2006 – Rafael Nadal
Top Seeds
Novak Djokovic has won most things in the sport of tennis but this is one tournament he has never won. The Serb has lost in three of the last four finals so he will be eager to finally secure the career Grand Slam and join the very elite in the game. He begins the tournament as a 10/11 shot for glory and given the dominance he currently enjoys we could be looking back on that in two weeks time as a big price.
Andy Murray is the second seed this year. He comes into the tournament having made the news for parting company with his coach Amelie Mauresmo in recent times but that never stopped him when he powered to the Rome title. He laid it down to Djokovic in the semi-final last year but came up just short but the way he won in Rome makes him a huge danger at just over 4/1 here.
You could be forgiven for thinking that Rafael Nadal owned this place given the success he has had here and he begins the tournament as the third seed and 11/2 to win the title for a 10th time. Nadal has shown glimpses of coming back to his best in 2016 but he hasn’t been competitive in a Grand Slam for a while so how he will cope in the second week is open to debate.
Stan Wawrinka is the third seed for this tournament and begins his title defence at 14/1 to retain the title. He comes into the event off the back of a win in Geneva last week to boost his confidence but if he goes deep on this tournament it will have meant he will have played hard stuff for three full weeks which I always have doubts over whether that is ideal.
Other Contenders
Kei Nishikori arrives in Paris in pretty decent form. He should have beaten Djokovic in Rome a couple of weeks ago but went down in a final set tie-break. He has been at the top level enough now to be ready to take his game to the next level and that would be to win a Slam. He’s already made a Slam final so he knows he can compete for the full two weeks.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be hoping to give the French crowds the winner they desire having not seen one of their own win this tournament since Yannick Noah in 1983. Tsonga has made a couple of semi-finals and a couple of quarter finals this season but you would think he will need to show much more to challenge in this.
Dominic Thiem has been talked about for quite a while and we’ve seen why this year as the Austrian has won two titles already. He has wins over Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer this season too so he can beat the big players. I sense this is a year or so too soon for him to win this event but he can certainly spoil a few parties while he’s in the tournament.
Outright Betting
Novak Djokovic is going to take a lot of beating but much like when Roger Federer strived for so long for this tournament to complete his personal set or Rory McIlroy and The Masters it can start to become a burden and you can try too hard to win it. It has to be said that the Serb has a nice looking route to a potential semi with Nadal so I’m not rushing to take him on.
My outright bet is going to come in the other half of the draw where I would be perfectly happy with the position I’ll be in should Djokovic make the final. Andy Murray is in excellent form after his win in Rome and you would have to say the early draw has been quite kind to him up until the quarter final but it gets tougher from there.
A case can certainly be made for Stan Wawrinka although I’m not a fan of taking defending champions per se because there is much more attention around them when they are the hunted as opposed to the hunter. You can’t argue too much with his first week draw but he’ll need to be bang at it in the second week to defend the title.
In these two week events I look for value in the hope that something does happen and the draw opens up and I believe the value this week lies in Kei Nishikori. I’ve been impressed with the Japanese star all season and he’s at home at this level now. His performance against Djokovic in Rome suggests he could be peaking at the right time too.
Nishikori is in Murray’s section of the draw but we saw him take the Scot all the way in the Davis Cup earlier in the year and on the clay here he wouldn’t be the huge underdog he would be on say grass and if Kei can come through that a place in the final is there for the taking. He’s a shade overpriced on current form so he’s my outright bet here.
Quarter Betting
There were a few men I was hoping would fall into the right portions of the draw to merit outright support but that hasn’t been the case so I will focus on the quarter betting.
The second quarter is going to get a lot of interest this week purely because it contains Rafael Nadal but there are a couple of dangers to the Spaniard not just in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga but also Dominic Thiem and David Goffin. It is the Thiem I like here.
I think Nadal is there for the taking here. There is no doubt he is playing much closer to his best than he has done for a while but he hasn’t been to the second week of any of the last three Grand Slams and I just wonder if he gets stuck in a battle with someone like Fognini in the third round how much he’ll have left for the second week.
Thiem would be a last 16 opponent for Nadal but he is a man on the up and in excellent form. Thiem has already beaten Nadal this year so we know should they meet that he can do it. Thiem beat Federer in Rome recently and looked really good in that tournament and I believe he’s the value alternative to Nadal in that section.
Tips
Back K.Nishikori to win French Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfair (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
WON – Back D.Thiem to win 2nd Quarter for a 2/10 stake at 8.00 with Skybet
Back him here:
