The opening day of the 3 day Aintree meeting finishing with the Grand National and the big race on Day 1 is the Grade 1 Betway Bowl Chase. A small but select field of 7 go to post and this year sees the return of Cue Card, last year’s winner, and Silviniaco Conti who was victorious in 2014 and 2015. Since 2010, all bar shock 50/1 winner Follow The Plan is 2013 have started at 7/2 or shorter so it is a race to follow the market but, interestingly, only 2 of the 6 have started favourite.
Favourites
If the real Cue Card turns up, he should win. He’s rated at least 4lb better than all of his rivals and he won this in taking style 12 months ago after falling in the Gold Cup weeks earlier. A similar fate happened this year at Cheltenham, falling in exactly the same place, so maybe it’s a sign. My concern is that he wasn’t really travelling in the Gold Cup this year and he is now an 11-year-old so there has to be question marks as to how long he can go on for producing at the top-level. At around 7/4, he looks worth taking on.
The most likely to take advantage is Gordon Elliott’s Empire Of Dirt. Prior to a disappointing 4th in the Ryanair at Cheltenham, he’d looked top class. He won the Plate at the Festival 12 months ago before being stepped up to 3 miles and landing the Troytown. He showed those runs to be no fluke as he gave the Gold Cup winner Sizing John a fright in the Irish version. It was somewhat of a surprise to see him going back down in trip for the Ryanair and, in all honesty, that’s what probably cost him. That race was won by a former Champion Chase winner, Un De Sceaux, so it’s not hard to understand why he may have been outpaced. The step back up in trip is sure to suit and ground conditions are perfect. I expect a massive run, especially with the trainer having been in such fine fettle all year.
The Rest
Bristol De Mai comes here after a satisfactory run in the Gold Cup but he’s not for me. He isn’t the best of jumpers and that makes him vulnerable against the top horses whilst his liking for a softer surface is clear. I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t get round but, if he does, he’ll likely hit one hard at a crucial stage so 11/2 is not a price I’m interested in.
It would be a great story if Silviniaco Conti could land a 3rd Bowl in 4 years and a big run is expected. He loves the track, will appreciate the ground and, interestingly, was a short head behind Cue Card in the King George when the pair finished 2nd and 3rd behind Thistlecrack. He’s clearly not the horse of old but a return to this track could see him in the mix. However, I think something more progressive, like Empire Of Dirt, will have too much for him at the business end.
2 more of this field ran in the Gold Cup, Smad Place and Tea For Two, but both are just below top class. Aso, the final runner of the 7 strong field, did finish in front of Empire Of Dirt in the Ryanair but this is a different test with the added distance expected to favour the Irish runner more. He is likely to stay, is still on the upgrade and should outrun his odds of 20/1 but with only 7 runners, he’s not an each way bet with only 2 places paying out.
Betfair Bowl – Tip
Back Empire Of Dirt for a 2/10 stake at 3.50 Bet365 BOG
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