After one of the highlights of the Christmas period in the horse racing world took place at Kempton on Boxing Day, when the King George VI was run, another of them takes place down in Wales on Friday when the Welsh Grand National takes centre stage. Eyes are beginning to drift towards Cheltenham and this is another race which might well throw up a few clues to the festival. We’ve gone through that race and one on the undercard which precedes it.
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1.35 Chepstow: Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle
Preview
A decent looking field of 9 for this Grade 1 for juvenile hurdlers. Heavy ground will make this a test and the market seems to suggest there’s only 4 in with any real chance.
Allmankind is the current favourite and arrives here off the back of a couple of wins including a Grade 2 at Cheltenham. He should go well but this is by far the softest ground he has faced so cannot be backed with confidence at his current odds.
Cerberus is the Irish challenger and he’s another with a major chance. He won a Grade 3 hurdle last time out and will be fine on the ground. The concern with both market leaders is that they like to make all so there’s a worry they will set it up for a closer.
Betting
The one most likely to benefit from the fast pace is Tavus from the small but in form yard of Jedd O’Keeffe. He was progressive on the flat winning 3 of his last 4 including a handicap on heavy ground. In one start over hurdles, he narrowly beat Navajo Poss, again on heavy ground, the pair coming clear. The horse he beat that day has gone on to win a Grade 2 hurdle so the form looks rock solid. With improvement to come, not least a cleaner round of jumping, he is certain to be there at the business end and is a typical ‘each way bet to nothing’.
Elysian Flame also holds claims but will need to jump much better than he did at Cheltenham. The others all look outclassed.
Tips
Back Tavus (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 6.00 Coral BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
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2.50 Chepstow: Coral Welsh National Handicap Chase
Preview
The big race of the day is the Welsh National over a stamina sapping 3 miles 6 furlongs. 17 line up but there won’t be 17 that finish. You need a guaranteed stayer here and one that will appreciate the deep ground.
Elegant Escape is a short price looking favourite but does have some very good form. However, 11st12 and top weight has to be a slight concern, despite the fact he won this last year carrying 11st8. He’s up 9lbs for that run.
Now McGinty has a good novice campaign last year and his return when a head 2nd to Santini was promising but he’s far from a certain stayer whilst Yala Enki has claims on his 3rd here last year, albeit he hasn’t reproduced anything half as good since.
Potters Corner won the Midlands National over half a mile further on similar ground so he’ll be plugging on. Connections have tried to protect his mark, campaigning him over hurdles since, but he is still 10lbs higher here and can be a sketchy jumper.
Betting
Staying with the Midlands National theme, Prime Venture could be the one to be on here. He was 4th in that race, looking to hold every chance before fading from 3 out. This slightly shorter trip will help as well a 4lb lower mark (14lbs better off with the winner for a beating of 18 lengths). 12 months ago, he ran 2nd behind Ramses De Teillee here (2 lengths back) and that horse went on to finish 2nd behind today’s favourite in this race 3 weeks later. On a line through those races, he’s handicapped to win here. He’s yet to win over fences but this could be the day. First time cheekpieces may just make the difference.
Tips
PLACED – Back Prime Venture (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Coral BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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