May Day bank holiday has arrived which means one thing in the UK and Ireland – lots of flat racing for us to enjoy! The countdown is very much on to the opening Classics of the season but before we get there, bets keep coming.
There are seven meetings in the UK and Ireland to go through and enjoy on Monday and having scoured the racecards for each of them, we have come up with three bets – two in Ireland and one in the UK.
4.45 Curragh
Preview
A big field of 19 for this apprentice handicap over the straight 7 furlongs at the County Kildare track, with crack apprentice Jamie Powell aboard the favourite, Tall Story. Despite being a 22-run maiden, he has a couple of recent efforts at the Curragh that put him firmly in the picture; firstly when 5th of 29 over this course & distance in October and then when 2nd of 23 over a furlong shorter on his most recent run 2 weeks ago. Cnodian loves this track and has run some very good recent races in defeat but I’m not totally convinced he’s that well handicapped nor does he really want this trip. Punk Poet needs the ground to quicken up to be considered a big threat but if it does dry out, he’ll be there at the finish.
Betting
Secret Magician – The top weight is where I’m heading for our bet. He’s just a 4 year old so probably has improvement in him and, despite only winning once (in a maiden here), he’s run some cracking races in big field handicaps here. In fact, his handicap form at this track reads 4th of 15, 15th of 20, 3rd of 22 and 2nd of 24. Add to that 3 maiden runs where he’s finished 2-3-1 and you can say for sure it’s a track that brings out the best in him. I can forgive his one down the field run as it was in a top handicap for horses rated up to 105 especially as he’s top weight here off a mark of 79. Not only was he racing against top class rivals, he also had a mark of 86 there. His 3rd place finish was off 3lbs lower than today with his 2nd off 2lbs lower. That last run can, in theory, be upgraded as he was only beaten on the bob and the pair were almost 2 lengths clear of the 3rd. He’s run once this year, finishing down the field but I’ll put effort down to the track and the fact he may have needed his first run for 164 days. Back at his favourite track, on easy ground which he relishes and off a decent mark, he rates a decent each way bet.
Tips
Back Secret Magician (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Paddy Power BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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5.04 Windsor
Preview
With the ground riding heavy at the Berkshire track, you are certainly going to need a guaranteed stayer who doesn’t mind a bit of cut. This is a Class 6 handicap over a mile and a quarter, where we have the in form top weight Chagall vying for favouritism. Whilst he’s finished 2nd the last twice, his last win was 3 starts ago off 10lbs lower which would be a worry. Albus Anne is the other at the head of the market following a close 2nd over this course & distance 2 weeks ago. She’s gone up 1lb so should go well again. Mr Zee was the one to beat Albus Anne and given he’s only gone up 2lbs, he might frank the form and go in again.
Betting
Gold Souk – The selection hails from a small yard that has had a good start to the year with 3 winners from his 13 runners which improves to 3 from 6 when ridden by today’s jockey. The selection has contributed to one of those wins, 2 starts ago at Bath where he came from a mile back to stay on very strongly, prevailing by an ever increasing length. That was on soft ground and whilst he didn’t back that up next time out off today’s 5lb higher mark, there were excuses. Firstly, he was up in grade to a 0-75 (races in a 0-60 today) on better ground where he was poorly positioned when the race unfolded. That said, he did stay on and despite being 5th of 7, he was less than 3 lengths back. He’s a definite soft ground lover with his handicap record on soft or worse yielding 2 wins and 2 seconds from 6 runs, increased to 2 wins from 2 runs under this jockey. He’s been rated much higher in the past and has won off a high mark so he’s definitely off a winnable. With the drop in class and ground in his favour, and the right jockey aboard, he should go well at a tasty price.
Tips
Back Gold Souk (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
5.20 Curragh
Preview
It doesn’t get much more difficult than a 26 runner handicap over 6 furlongs but it’s one I cannot resist getting involved in. Chris Hayes rides the favourite in Midnight Fire after he won a course & distance handicap off 8lbs lower last time out but it’s genuinely hard to rattle up a sequence in big field handicaps here so I’m happy to oppose. Colin Keane’s Hero Of The Hour has a top chance if he can transfer his all weather form to the turf. Course regulars Coumshinguan, Mogwli and Downforce all have claims too but would need to return to their best; that said, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see one of the three go in.
Betting
Nordic Passage – Another course regular is the selection here and it’s fair to say he’s not the most consistent and is a bit all or nothing. That said, you need to read a bit deeper into his form to reveal a couple of patterns. On turf, it’s here where he thrives with 2 of his 3 career wins coming here and both of his second place finishes here too. He generally prefers ground on the easier side of good but doesn’t really want heavy conditions which makes his last 2 runs easy enough to ignore. He goes well fresh too with a win in a 17 runner handicap and a head 2nd of 22 coming after breaks of 3+ months. His handicap form at this track where the going is at best good to yielding and at worst soft reads 1st of /18 (off 85), 13/16 (92), 1/9 (91), 2/22 (82) and 2/16 (83). The latter 2 of those both came last year after absences from the track and today he gets in off a lowly mark of 75. Admittedly he has to put a couple of average to poor efforts behind him but surely the heavy ground was the reason. With conditions currently soft but with a dry day forecast, the ground should be ideal come race time and, if he retains all his old ability, he must surely be right there at the end.
Tips
Back Nordic Passage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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