The start of the turf flat season kicks off with the traditional curtain raiser, the Lincoln run at Doncaster over 1 mile. It’s always a competitive handicap with a mix of unexposed 4 year olds and battle hardened older horses. The race is usually run on ground on the easy side of good and this year looks to be no different although the ground is drying all the time. There’s a maximum field of 22 with Roger Charlton saddling the likely favourite, Yuften, after antepost favourite Morando was declared a non runner at the 48 hour declaration stage due to an apparent minor setback.
Favourites
At 9/2, Yuften sits at the top of the market and is probably best judged on his win in the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot towards the end of last season. He won off a mark of 101 that day and gets in here with a mark of 105. He’s now a 6 year old so not your typical Lincoln favourite which is normally that of a lightly raced 4 year old. That said, he’s lightly raced and confirmed his wellbeing with a close 3rd in the Lady Wulfruna on the sand at Wolverhampton last month. He has developed a tendency to hang left and that is off putting. In a race where the last 6 winners have started at 12/1 or bigger, I feel there are better handicapped and better value horses in the race.
Donncha is a likeable sort and is the current 7/1 2nd favourite. With the usual question marks over the draw, I’m struggling to fancy him having being given stall 21 of 22 where all the pace seems to be low to middle. If, however, high proves the place to be, the other concern is his rail draw for one that likes to be held up out the back. He does have the hold-up supremo, JP Spencer, doing the steering. This horse has been a regular in Class 2 handicaps and has run well almost on every occasion without managing to win one. His day deserves to be close but he’s a victim of his own consistency and doesn’t have anything in hand of the handicapper.
The popular Top Notch Tonto makes the favourites list and, whilst trainer Brian Ellison talks up his chances, I’m not a fan. He’s now a 7 year old, has an inexperienced 7lb claimer aboard and has not won since 2015. Add to that the fact only 1 of his 6 wins has come in a field with more than 9 runners and that was his maiden 5 years ago. 10/1 is not a price I am interested in.
Contenders
Just behind the market principles, we have Bravery from the yard of David O’Meara. This is the dark horse of the race, like the disappointing Lord Of The Land last year, having switched from O’Brien’s stable. He ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas last year but was then stepped up to 1 mile 4 furlongs without any real success. He’s bred to get that trip so will likely find a mile too sharp. He also has nothing in the form book to warrant his current price.
Another 4 year old with a squeak is Ryan Moore’s mount, Oh This Is Us. He’s been to Meydan for a winter campaign, like 3 of the last 6 winners, and he’s a progressive horse having won 4 races last year. However, he doesn’t appear that well handicapped and I’m not totally sure a mile is his trip, especially in a big field. He looks a 7 furlong horse to me and is one to keep on side for later in the campaign.
I looked long and hard at last year’s 3rd, Battle Of Marathon, who shoulders top weight here with a mark of 109. His run last year came off 7lb lower and he did have a couple of prep runs so it’s unlikely he’ll be going 2 better than 12 months ago. That said, he was 5th in Royal Hunt Cup off a mark of 110 so the 109 he carries here might not be beyond him. With the ground drying out, it might just be worth waiting for another day where the ground is genuinely soft.
The first horse to make the cut is Richard Fahey’s 4 year old, Dolphin Vista. His shrewd trainer has landed this prize twice in the last 5 years and this one looks his best chance of the 5 runners he has in the 22 strong field. Despite having run 14 times to date, it is the first time former champion jockey Paul Hanagan has taken the ride and that might prove significant. He’s finished in the first 2 on exactly 50% of his career runs, winning 4, including 3 handicaps last term. I’m a fan of 3 year olds sticking to their own age group so I looked at our horse’s form in handicaps exclusive for that age group. He ran 4 times, won 3 and only 1 of his 26 opponents finished in front of him. That horse was Folkswood, a horse now rated 110 who finished 2nd last month in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta at Meydan. He’s drawn in stall 10 today and likes to race prominently which I think is an advantage in a race with very little pace. He goes on any ground and has won over this trip and 2 furlongs further so he’ll definitely stay. He’s also been gelded over the winter which may well prove to be another positive. Dolphin Vista has sneaked into this (21st of the 22 runners) and has a massive shout of adding to his trainer’s excellent record in the race.
The Rest
Our 2nd selection comes in the shape of Zhui Feng. This Amanda Perrett trained horse has a progressive profile and I think has slipped under the radar of many. He’s another 4 year old who has form in the book yet appears to be very well handicapped. He won the Tattersalls Millions as a 2 year old but opening up last year finishing 3rd of 5 to the now 110-rated Thikriyaat in a conditions race where Zhui Feng gave the winner 4lbs. Our horse runs off a mark of just 102 today.
That run confirmed him as good enough to run in the 2000 Guineas although he didn’t really make any impression that day. Of his other form, he ran in 4 big field handicaps and ran well in each. He was 11th in the Britannia but finished 6th of 18 in the group he raced in. What’s interesting is the horses that finished in front of him that day; the previously mentioned Folkswood was one whilst others included Booming Delight and Limitless who have since gone on to contest the Hong Kong Derby.
He was then 6th in a Newbury handicap over 1 mile 2 furlongs but he was best of those that raced up with the pace. Despite being drawn on what appeared to be the wrong side of the track, he was 5th of 31 in the Cambridgeshire, only giving out late on when stamina came into play over the 9 furlong trip. The step back to a mile will suit. Most recently, he was 12th of 19 in that Balmoral Handicap won by Yuften but there’s plenty of positives to take from that race. He raced in a smaller group of 6 in the middle of the track and was bang up with the pace all the way.
Ultimately, the race wasn’t run to suit but he has a better draw today (drawn in 13) and his prominent racing style will be more suited to this race. He has run once this year, finishing less than a length behind 111-rated Convey in the Winter Derby. That’s excellent form indeed. His mark is due to go up 5lbs after this race so I think this could be time to catch him, especially as his trainer sends just one from Sussex and is in decent form with a double from 3 runners on Wednesday.
Third Time Lucky is another from Fahey’s yard and whilst he has some excellent big field handicap form, I’m put off by a 7lb claimer. You’re Fired and Instant Attraction are 2 very likeable handicapper’s and are ones I’ll be keeping on side in 2017 but neither look to have much in hand and there will be other days for both.
Horses aged between 4 and 6 generally hold sway so I’m happy to put a line through older horses such as 2015 winner Gabrial, Heavens Guest, George Cinq, Highland Colori and Dream Walker.
Selections
Back Dolphin Vista (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 NetBet (¼ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
Back Zhui Feng (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 Ladbrokes (¼ odds 1-4)
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