The real start of the flat season is almost upon us, with the Lincoln at Doncaster just 1 day away. We’ll be back with our thoughts on Saturday’s big handicap soon but before that, we start the month with 2 recommended bets from the all-weather card at Lingfield,
2.00pm Lingfield
The opening race on the card sees 12 runners line up for this 1 mile handicap. With exactly 2/3rd’s of this field trading in single figures, it has the look of a competitive heat and they’re likely to go a good clip with Shifting Star, Skidby Mill and The Tichborne all happy to force the pace.
Skidby Mill comes here after running at the All Weather Championships where she was outclassed. Her form previous to that was excellent with 2 wins on the bounce and she’s handicapped only 1lb higher. However, both wins came in small fields where she was able to dictate a steady tempo and that almost certainly won’t be the case today.
Tommy’s Secret and Wind In My Sails are 2 others that are well fancied but neither have ever won off the back of a long break so their 102 day and 213 day absences respectively should be enough to make us look elsewhere.
We think this race will revolve around 3 horses that filled the 1-2-3 in a course and distance handicap back in February. That day, The Tichborne landed the spoils, with Van Huysen in a close 2nd and Chelwood Gate a further length and a half back in 3rd. However, it is the 3rd horse from that race that captures our attention here.
Chelwood Gate is 1lb better off with the 2nd and 2lb better off with the winner from that run and, whilst that doesn’t appear enough to turn the tables, it’s more the way the race panned out that interests us. The winner grabbed an easy lead and that was key in a slowly run race whilst the 2nd horse raced prominently throughout. It wasn’t as straightforward for our selection who was held up at the back, was denied a clear run and, despite finishing well, was never really in with a shot of winning. He’s since run twice with conditions against him both times; running over inadequate trips at a track that doesn’t suit as well as Lingfield.
The ideal conditions for our charge is racing on the all-weather at Lingfield, in Class 5 over a trip of 1 mile. Exactly what he gets here. Ignoring his 2 year old career, he’s raced 13 times over trips short of a mile, finishing in the first 3 just 4 times. Compare that with runs over 1 mile; 2 wins and 5 more runs in the first 3 from 15 starts. His Lingfield form reads 2 wins, 6 places from 9 starts. It certainly gives the impression of a horse certain to be in the mix.
Taking his form a step further and looking at his 1 mile runs in Class 5 handicaps at Lingfield, form reads 1-3-1-3-2-3 with the last 5 of those all coming off marks either 1lb or 2lb higher than today. Reunited with David Probert today who gets on well with the horse, this looks a good opportunity for Chelwood Gate to add to his already excellent Lingfield record.
PLACED – Back Chelwood Gate (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 6.50 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
4.55pm Lingfield
Another Class 5 handicap, this time over 6 furlongs. This race instantly caught our eye because of the presence of what we believe is a weak favourite at a crazy short price of of 13/8. Bouclier is the horse in question and whilst he’s only 2lb higher than his win last time out, he doesn’t look an obvious type to follow up. His form previous to that was sketchy to say the least and he’s no certainty so it’s best to look elsewhere for each way value, especially as his win came at a very different track, Kempton.
Ripinto is one of 4 others priced under 10/1 but a 3lb rise in the weights coupled with a 4 month absence is enough to put us off him whilst Bush Warrior has solid claims on the form book but is 6lb higher than his last win. Admittedly, he ran well in his follow up attempt off this mark last time out but not well enough to suggest he’s anything in hand of the handicapper.
The other 2 horses to consider are Noble Deed and Seamster, with the former holding the advantage on their last 2 runs. However, it’s the David O’Meara trained Seamster that gets our vote.
Noble Deed got up to beat our pick 2 starts back but is 2lb worse enough for half a length. He also finished ahead of Seamster last time out when neither horse showed their true running. Despite having something to find, Seamster has plenty going for him today. He has his conditions today which, like our last bet, is this trip at this track.
Seamster’s record at Lingfield in 5 wins from 9 starts, with his record over course and distance reading 1-1-1-0-1-2, albeit the first 4 runs were around 2 years back. Now a 9 year old, Seamster moved to the powerful O’Meara yard and his 5 race form reads 2-1-2-0-0. He is higher than his last win and 2lb higher than the 2nd place 3 starts ago but it feels like there’s a bit more to eke out of him. His last 2 runs can be ignored, racing at Chelmsford where he was hampered at a crucial stage and then forced to race very wide in a class of race too far.
Returned to Lingfield and dropped back in grade off 1lb lower, everything seems set for a big run. The other very interesting factor is that this is O’Meara’s only runner on the card and stable jockey Danny Tudhope travels down for just the 1 ride. It takes on added interest when you consider Tudhope then has to travel back north to ride the Lincoln favourite on Saturday. At 9/1, Seamster looks to be a very good each way bet.
PLACED – Back Seamster (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
