It is a busy weekend on the horse racing front but before we get there we have some Friday cards to get stuck into. There is one bet that jumps out at us which comes in the evening soiree at Newcastle.
7.30 Newcastle
Preview
There might only be 10 runners but this looks a cracking Class 3 handicap on the all weather, over the straight 7 furlongs. There is a short priced favourite in the unexposed Roger Varian gelding Spanish City but he hasn’t done enough to justify odds of 6/4 against some battle hardened handicapper’s. 3 starts ago, but back in 2016, he won a handicap here over a furlong shorter & 7lb lower. He has run ok in 2 subsequent starts but unless the trainer works his magic, he’s a false price.
[the_ad_group id=”3624″]
Betting
Von Blucher is 2 from 2 here and should go well but I’m marginally favouring War Department who himself has an excellent record at Newcastle. He has a mark of 89 here & his last win came over course & distance off 2lb higher & in 1 grade higher too. That makes the 9/1 on offer very appealing.
Since that win in June last year, he’s done nothing but hasn’t had his conditions. Twice he’s ran on turf over false trips of 6 furlongs & 1 mile. His record on turf is 1 win from 12 & over trips outside of his preferred 7 furlongs, he’s 1 from 14. He then ran twice at Southwell over this trip but his record on all weather tracks away from Newcastle is 0 from 9. His last run was in March so there should be no worries over a long absence.
Conditions today are perfect. His record over course & distances 1-6-3-4-1-2-1 with the most recent win off 91 in a Class 2. The last 4 of those races have had today’s jockey on board & the stable is in great form, with a couple of winners at Musselburgh on Thursday. Interestingly, the yard has plenty of runners at the Edinburgh track on Friday & this jockey goes there for a few rides but then the yard sends one here, ridden by the same jockey (his only ride here).
Tips
Back War Department (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 BetVictor BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2018
