Churchill Downs 23.34
It’s the big one from Churchill Downs, the 20 runner Kentucky Derby and what a race we have in store. The last 2 winners of this have been absolutely top drawer, with last years victor American Pharoah going on to land the Triple Crown and the Breeders Cup Classic, whilst 2014 winner California Chrome has just landed the World’s richest horse race, the Dubai World Cup.
I’m pretty sure we don’t have anything quite as good in this field but that makes it quite an open renewal this year. Whilst any number of these come into this with claims, there are 2 key stats to focus on in an attempt to narrow down the field. The last 4 winners have all come here off the back of a win in Grade 1 last time out and, of the other 8 to be placed, half of them had also come here with a Grade 1 win last time up. If we look through this year’s field, there are 5 that fit the bill and they are the ones to concentrate on.
Of the ones that didn’t win a Grade 1 last time out, Destin is the most likely to get into the frame but I worry about form from Tampa as it often has an uneven look to it. Mor Spirit also holds sound claims and a Bob Baffert / Gary Stevens horse can never be dismissed. If I had to take anything that didn’t come here off the back of a Grade 1 win, these are the 2 I’d focus on and both are backable prices at around 14/1.
The 5 that tick the boxes of the 2 key stats are favourite Nyquist, Exaggerator, Creator, Outwork and Brody’s Cause. Let’s focus on the favourite first, he’s won all 7 starts to date including the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year and the Florida Derby this year. In fairness, he’s been impressive to date but has yet to record anything that create speed figure wise and he’s not certain to get the trip, especially if they go hard which is likely. Exaggerator is the 2nd favourite and has finished behind Nyquist and Brody’s Cause every time they’ve met. That clearly doesn’t bode well but he does have good form and is best judged on his last time out win in the Santa Anita Derby where he came clear, albeit on sloppy ground. This is clear a much better race and I’m worried that he’ll struggle to reverse the form with Nyquist and Brody’s Cause. I looked long and hard at Outwork who has speed to burn and loves to go from the front but I’m certain he’ll be better suited over shorter, in a smaller field. He’ll get swallowed up late by the closers.
Therefore, we’re left with 2 and I fancy these are the ones to side with, Creator and Brody’s Cause. Creator has raced 3 times this year, trotting up in a maiden before finishing 3rd in a Group 2. However, I was taken with his win in the Arkansas Derby last time out where he came from last to first to win in style. He’s drawn in 3 so may need luck in running but, that said, shouldn’t have to burn too much energy early doors. They are certain to go off quick and, with stamina a strong suit of his, he’ll be making eyecatching progress late on.
The other one I like is drawn very wide and is Brody’s Cause. He has won his maiden here before beating Exaggerator in a Grade 1 last year. His campaign ended with a 3rd to Nyquist in the Breeders Cup Classic and he was closing at the finish, and is therefore likely to be suited by the longer trip here. His most recent disappointment was at Tampa, form I’ll figure due to the track and the fact it was his reappearance but he showed his true form in the Grade 1 Blue Grass when coming from the back to win by 2 lengths. Admittedly, the pace was strong and he was suited by being held up but I expect the same tonight so there’s no reason to be put off by that form. He should be able to stay out of trouble with his draw and again, I feel he’ll be staying on to good effect down the straight.
At good each way prices, they are the 2 I’m interested in with Mor Spirit and Destin the others that should not be written off.
Tips
Back Creator (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Coral (1/4 odds 1-3)
Back Brody’s Cause (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 17.00 with Coral (1/4 odds 1-3)
Back them here:
