The flat season is beginning to draw to a close but after a wonderful day of betting last Saturday we’re not prepared to let what is left go without a serious look. While Cheltenham takes most of the attention in the UK there is a decent meeting over at Leopardstown in Ireland.
The jump season really gets going this weekend which is probably why the Irish card is going under the radar but there are winners to be found and we’ll try to do just that by targeting a couple of races on the card.
3.04 Leopardstown
Preview
7 furlongs, 15 runners and soft ground awaits us for our first bets from Ireland. An incredibly competitive heat where all but one of the runners are quoted are less than 20/1, with Day Dreamin’ and Reverberation vying for favouritism. The former won last time out but has 6lbs extra to contend with and I’d prefer the chances of the latter who was only just denied here on his last start & goes off the same mark. Mutiny was quoted as struggling on this ground last time out so is passed over. There are 2 of interest & I’ll side with both.
Betting
Tresorier is the first selection & he’s taken to bounce back from a disappointing run last time out when hanging badly & making a move mid-race that used up too much energy. Previous to that, he won on heavy ground off just 2lbs lower & that was just rewards for a series of good runs. In October 12 months, he ran 3 good races in succession, 5th of 15 off 76, 3rd of 28 off 74 & a head 2nd of 13 off 75. Racing off 78 here, he looks capable of this mark and the more rain that falls the better. In an open race, he should go well.
Siding with Tresorier means I cannot leave out Silver Service. He is probably more fancied on their 2 runs against each other 12 months ago. Tresorier’s 3rd of 28 was a good run but the winner that day is our 2nd selection who scooted clear by 5 lengths to win in fine style on this sort of ground. He is 4lbs worse off today but then on their next start, he was 3rd, 1 place behind Tresorier but was 9lbs worse off than he is today. He’s been largely poor this term but showed some signs of a return earlier this month when back on soft ground. He’s now a workable mark &, of more interest, is the fact Gary Carroll is now placed with one of the best claimers around & that extra 5lbs off his back could easily make the difference.
Tips
Back Tresorier (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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WON – Back Silver Service (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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4.49 Leopardstown
Preview
The last race of the day sees the biggest field, with 18 runners over a mile and a quarter. Gordon Elliott saddles the favourite in Sharp Focus who was a head 2nd in a similar race last time but is now 4lbs higher whilst Melburnian would look well handicapped on his last win at the back end of last term but has been out of form since. Despite that, the assistance of Colin Keane is a big plus and he shouldn’t be written off. If Yafordadoe breaks on terms, he’ll be in the mix but that isn’t guaranteed for this habitual slow starter.
Betting
A chance is taken on Nordic Aurora from the very good yard of Joseph O’Brien. A 3 year old who’s only seen the track and now tackles handicaps for the first time, he’s been given every chance by the handicapper. He showed nothing on his first 2 starts but I was impressed on his last start when he finished 4 lengths 8th of 14 at Tipperary. On that day, he was slowly away & raced out the back, detached from the main pack but made eyecatching headway & was doing all of his best work inside the final furlong. The extra furlong here will be in his favour as will the softer ground. If he races a bit closer to the pace, I’d fancy him to be the one to show the most improvement against some exposed types.
Tips
Back Nordic Aurora (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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