With the history making Grand National now behind us our focus from a racing point of view for the next six or seven months will be purely on the flat season. There are some decent meetings to come on the flat later in the week which we will deal with nearer the time but first we have Sunday to get stuck into.
Having had a scour of the cards across the UK and Ireland we are focusing across the Irish Sea for a couple of bets where Leopardstown is our centre of attention with a pair of picks across two competitive handicaps.
3.15 Leopardstown
Preview
A nice handicap for horses rated up to 100 around the 7 furlongs, with a big field of 16. The in-form Colin Keane / Ger Lyons combination team up to saddle the deserved favourite in Leadership Race. He’s yet to win on turf but looks well enough handicapped judged on a 3rd & 2nd in a pair of turf handicaps last year off similar marks to this. He should go close but did burst a blood vessel on his most recent start 3 weeks ago.
Juyush comes here off the back of 3 wins on the all weather. A different surface, shorter trip & 8lb higher mark is enough to put me off. Pulse Of Shanghai & San Andreas are 2 others bringing decent all weather form to the table; the former is another with concerns over a rising mark whilst the latter doesn’t appear to be the same horse away from Dundalk. Mudlaahim also won on the sand last time up & is up 7lb but of more concern is that he might just need the run whilst Wonder Elzaam has top weight, won on turf last time out, is 6lbs higher but probably needs it to rain to give any real chance.
Betting
Real Appeal is my selection, a 4 year old racing off a career low mark. After moving from France as a 2 year old, he was tried in Group & Listed company & then started his 3 year old campaign being tried over various distances. Having moved to his current yard, he first run in a 1 mile Premier Handicap at the Curragh over a mile. Kept wide & sitting out the back, he was poorly positioned when the race developed inside the last furlong & a half and, whilst staying on, he couldn’t land a blow. Back a furlong next time out, he raced over this course & distance and was handed the coffin box draw in a field of 18. Going off at 50/1, he raced front rank & made his challenge a furlong out looking like he was going to hold on before just being caught late on, edged out into 3rd.
That was off 2lbs higher than his mark today & a repeat of that effort would almost certainly see him in the winners enclosure. Two subsequent runs weren’t devoid of promise either, firstly when the rain didn’t help in finishing 5th at Listowel & then he stayed on well at Cork where a big weight of 10st was perhaps telling. I feel this turning track & shorter straight will suit this horse & provided he’s fit & ready first time up, he should be able to land the spoils especially given his much better draw versus the last time he was here. In a field of in-form horses that look to be handicapped out of it, he represents the best each way value.
Tips
WON – Back Real Appeal (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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4.50 Leopardstown
Preview
The first division of this 45-70 rated handicap over a mile has another big field of 16 & it has a very open feel to the race, with bookies going 6/1 the field. Shona Mea won on reappearance last term but that was off a mark of just 50; she’s off 69 today & her 3 most recent runs off this sort of mark has seen her beaten a minimum of 5 lengths. She shouldn’t fail for fitness but I’d be worried about her handicap mark &, for me, she’s a favourite to oppose.
I do like Breaking News & she ran well enough at Gowran 4 days but unless the ground turns heavy, it’s better to look elsewhere. Oneiroi looks very well handicapped indeed but he has tended to need his first run back so is probably one for another day whilst Nam is another that’s attractively handicapped and could go well if fully tuned up. Of the others, Koybig is solid enough & will run his race but is thoroughly exposed & is more appealing on the all weather.
Betting
Top weight is lightly raced Dream Tale & I’m siding with him in the hope he’ll shed his maiden tag today. He’s a 5 year old but didn’t see the race track until November last year & has had 5 runs in that time, yet none for just over 2 months. Campaigned over longer trip in maidens, it was clear he wasn’t getting home but he’s shown much improved form since pitched into handicaps. First time in a handicap, he was drawn wide in a 14 runner handicap but broke well to race up with the pace. 3 of the field went clear by a few lengths but my selection was only worn down late on & fared best of the 3 forcing the pace.
He was then drawn wide again & came back in distance to 7 furlongs but got upset in the stalls, stayed in rear on the wide outside & never really got into a challenging position. He stayed on well without ever looking like winning. He’s 1lb lower today, is drawn well in 3 &, having only raced at Dundalk, has his first start on turf which should bring about improvement. He looks the type that could be better than his current mark & I’m hoping today is the day he starts to fulfil that initial promise he’s shown over the winter.
Tips
WON – Back Dream Tale (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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