The eyes of the racing world are beginning to gear towards The Derby next month but there is plenty of decent racing to enjoy before we get there and some good meetings take place across the UK and Ireland on Saturday.
Ascot holds a meeting with one of the better handicaps of the year the centrepiece of it and there is also a card in Ireland which has some decent fields and good racing on offer. We’ve picked out a bet at both.
2.20 Navan
Preview
There’s a big field of 23 for a very competitive apprentice handicap over a trip just shy of 6 furlongs. Recently, there’s been a bias towards those drawn low on soft ground but interestingly, a lot of the pace is drawn middle to high. Inthepoorhouse holds favouritism for trainer Kieran Cotter, and in 2 starts this season, he finished a very disappointing 11 of 12 at Dundalk when well punted before showing improved form when 4th of 23 at the Curragh on heavy ground. He’s a 6 race maiden & whilst he has claims, a small rise in the weights is not a positive. Punting Along has had a series of 0’s to his name before surprising everyone when winning at 33/1 last time out; backing that up off a 4lb higher mark could be troublesome. I could not easily rule out either Conversant or Catherine Chroi with their respective jockey bookings but both are a shade too short in the betting.
Betting
Scarlet Dancer – Drawn in 7, the selection is pretty exposed and whilst 1 win in 27 isn’t compelling, he has plenty of solid form in the book off much higher marks so he’s no forlorn hope off a career low mark here. He’s been campaigned at a variety of trips up to a mile and has split his time between turf and the all weather at Dundalk. In 7 handicaps over this trip, he’s finished 3rd once and 4th on 3 occasions off marks between 63 and 70 but here he races off just 58. What also appeals is that he gets on really well with today’s jockey & he’s an excellent apprentice who is still able to claim 4lbs today. Form under this jockey reads 3 of 14, 4/12, 2/14, 3/14 and 4/14. On his most recent run on turf 2 starts ago, he raced at Bellewstown on heavy where the mile trip was probably beyond him, yet he managed to finish 7th of 14 and would have been closer had he seen out the trip and not been eased inside the final furlong. Around 2 furlongs from home, he looked as though he’d have been placed as a minimum. There’s lots to recommend him today and with a decent draw, easing mark and back over his best trip, I fancy him to be in the shake up.
Tips
Back Scarlet Dancer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Bet365 BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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2.40 Ascot
Preview
Always one of the most competitive handicaps of the season, it’s the 7 furlong Victoria Cup over the straight mile at the Berkshire track. There’s a field of 23 where it often pays to be drawn high and there’s no real reason to change that view given there’s pace drawn towards the stands side too. George Boughey is responsible for the 1-2 in the market with Billy Loughnane on Totally Charming and Kevin Stott on Baradar. Both have very good claims and should go well. Fresh is a standing dish at Ascot, winning twice here last year, whilst Vafortino won the race last year off 6lbs lower. Accidental Agent is now a bit long in the tooth but loves it here whilst another veteran, Safe Voyage, will relish the ground. I’m taking 2 in such a difficult puzzle.
Betting
Kingdom Come – A winner of his last 3, this ultra progressive gelding may not have stopped progressing and should go very well if he can transfer his form on the all weather at Kempton to turf. He won by 6 lengths 2 starts ago and was then upped in class and had a 15lbs higher mark to contend with. However, he disposed off Rainbow Fire easily, with the runner up since winning a very warm handicap at Haydock. Based on that evidence, a mark of 102 should not prove beyond him, especially given RPRs of 105 and 110 on his last 2 starts. He’s the most likely to go on to prove himself in pattern company and with breeding suggesting that soft ground will suit, I’m very hopeful on his chances.
Biggles – He’s got the highest draw in 23 and that, coupled with the proven winning form, make him a good bet here. In 13 career starts, he’s won 6 of them and continues to improve from run to run. On his one start on soft ground last October, he won a handicap by almost 5 lengths off 10lbs lower before running well again on the last day of the last flat season when 2nd behind Barodar on very heavy ground which may have been just too soft. He’s 3lbs better off with the runner up today and that should bring them closer. On reappearance, he ran in that Haydock handicap won by Rainbow Fire where he was a bit keen early yet stayed on in fine style to finish 3rd. His mark remains unchanged and in a bigger field with a stronger pace, he should be picking them off late and looks to have a major chance here.
Tips
Back Kingdom Come (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back Biggles (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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