With some of the bigger and better Saturday racing moved to the Sunday this weekend to accommodate for the funeral of the Duke of Edinburgh, we have some excellent action to look forward to.
The main attention will be north of the border up in Ayr where the Scottish Grand National is being run but our focus remains on the flat from here on in so it is Newbury where we go for two bets in the one race.
3.20 Newbury
Preview
A busy day of racing but there’s only one race to catch my eye & that’s the big handicap at Newbury, the Spring Cup. A field of 18 go to post for this 1 mile event on the straight course & it pays to be close to the pace. In honesty, there’s pace across the track with the likely trailblazer being National League housed in stall 3, with horses drawn 13, 14 & 16 all likely to be up there from the offset. It feels like they’re going to go a really good clip so I’m slightly favouring something that will sit off the pace & won’t be short of stamina at the business end.
The current well backed favourite is the unexposed Troll Peninsula who has career form of 211, the most recent of those being an almost 4 length win in a novice event on the all weather at Kempton. He’s certain to be better than his opening mark but price, first start of fast turf & a big field handicap is enough to make me look elsewhere. I backed Danyah in the Lincoln when he was 4th behind Haqeeqy & he’s in here off the same mark. Again he should go well but there’s nothing obvious to suggest he’s a better bet here than he was at Doncaster, yet he’s half the price. Nugget is pretty consistent & it wasn’t the easiest choice to leave him out but the big question is how much improvement he has left so reluctantly is left out of the final bets.
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Betting
Instead, I’m taking 2 against the field, the first of those being Matthew Flinders who looks to be a pattern class performer in the making. He’s had just the 6 career starts, 4 of those over a mile & a quarter so stamina is not an issue, yet his best form has come at a mile. On debut last summer, he finished 2 lengths behind now 102-rated Albaflora but was marked down as a very unlucky loser given the troubled passage he encountered. Next time up he put that right with a smooth success at Doncaster before finishing 2nd to the promising Roberto Escobarr at York where he lost a shoe & was giving the winner 7lbs. Into handicap company, he was then less than half a length 3rd behind First Winter, with one of today’s rivals Raaeq a head in front in second but my selection is over half a stone better off at the weights today. On his only career start on a straight track, off a mark 5lbs lower than he races off today, he easily landed a competitive Class 2 handicap, coming clear by almost 2 lengths. He disappointed on his final start off this mark but the very soft ground was surely to blame there. Gelded over the winter, he looks one to follow & back over a mile, on a straight track & with good to firm ground around, he’s going to be hard to keep out of the frame if he can get good early cover from an outside draw in 1.
At a massive price, I cannot leave The Gill Brothers out of the final selections. He’s plenty to prove but there are reasons to believe he could run a big race here; in his 2 starts off 1lb higher this year, he’s finished 4th & 3rd on the all weather, the first when just 1 length behind Born To Be Alive in the Lincoln Trial Handicap at Wolverhampton. That day, he tried different tactics being held up & despite taking a keen hold, made good ground in the straight. He then adopted similar tactics in a small field at Chelmsford & did well to finish 3rd despite the muddling pace. These conditions are sure to suit with a much bigger field allowing him to sit in behind the pace & come with a late run. He’s got a good draw in 12, right around 3 that like to go front rank so he should get a great tow into it. Add to that he hails from a yard in exceptional form right now, I cannot believe he won’t outrun his odds & he’s a nice each way bet especially with one bookie paying 6 places.
Tips
PLACED – Back Matthew Flinders (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.50 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back it here:
Back The Gill Brothers (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 34.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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