We are two weeks out from The Masters and as the focus of the fancied runners in the opening major of the year turns towards Augusta National they get a close taste of what they can expect there if they compete in the Houston Open this week.
The winner of the tournament qualifies for The Masters if he hasn’t done so already and that is exactly what happened to Stephan Jaeger a year ago when he took down the title. A very good field will be out to take it from him here.
Recent Winners
2024 – Stephan Jaeger
2022 – Tony Finau
2021 – Jason Kokrak
2020 – Carlos Ortiz
2019 – Lanto Griffin
2018 – Ian Poulter
2017 – Russell Henley
2016 – Jim Herman
2015 – J.B Holmes
2014 – Matt Jones
The Course
The tournament returns to the Memorial Park Golf Course this week for its latest staging here. The course is only five miles away from downtown Houston and is very different to the ones which have been in play in this tournament when it was the traditional Masters warm up in the past. This track is a par 70 with five par threes and three par fives and can stretch out to as long as 7,475 yards. It sounds a big course but it can play firm and fast.
We are probably still finding out about this course given that we’ve only seen it in competitive action a few times but the obvious thing is the huge run offs around most of the greens. Given that nobody will hit all of the greens, even though they are pretty big, scrambling is going to be a major play this week. The rough has been clipped down for this March renewal so that will help the bombers. We’re in Texas so the breeze will be a factor too. There is a bit of rain in the forecast so have length at the forefront of your mind.
The Field
There isn’t always a great field guaranteed in a tournament this close to a major championship but it has to be said we’ve got a perfectly decent one here, headlined by the top two players in the world rankings as Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy both tee it up, as does the defending champion and it is never a bad thing when the title is being defended. The remainder of the American charge is led by the likes of Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark and J.J Spaun.
There is a fairly strong international contingent in the field this week with the likes of Min Woo Lee, Jason Day, Sungjae Im and Taylor Pendrith very much looking to pick up a win and take the confidence that comes with it to Augusta in a fortnight. Aaron Rai, Thomas Detry and Nicolai Hojgaard are among the European players in the field while others to note include Sahith Theegala, Si Woo Kim and Patrick Rodgers.
Market Leaders
Although he hasn’t shown anything like his best golf since he returned from injury, the world number one Scottie Scheffler is no bigger than a 4/1 shot to get his hands on the title this week. He has a pretty good record in Texas and has finished second here on two occasions. That takes away the thinking that he is only here to prepare for The Masters but it has to be said that he is in nothing like the form that he has been in when arriving in previous years. He’s too short for me.
Rory McIlroy tees it up at the Houston Open this week and he is 13/2 to win around this golf course at the first attempt. There has been plenty of money for him here after Billy Horschel endorsed the fit the course has for him in a podcast earlier in the week but the nagging doubt when it comes to backing him is whether he is here really determined to win or if he is just here to tick over for The Masters. The latter doesn’t necessarily mean he can’t win but I’d want someone all in to be carrying my money.
Aaron Rai is the third favourite for the tournament this week, which highlights how competitive rather than elite the field is behind the front two in the betting. The fact that he can be taken at 30/1 for the title shows how much of the market the big two are taking up. He has a couple of top 10 finishes around here so he has to be respected and his form on arrival is solid enough too. If the doubts over the front two come to the surface then he could easily take this thing down.
We have a trio of players who are 35/1 on the best prices and they are the 2022 winner Tony Finau, Davis Thompson and the big hitting Australian Min Woo Lee. Finau won this tournament in the fall but was second in his title defence at this stage of last season. Thompson looked decent at TPC Sawgrass and was solid here last year while Min Woo Lee is on debut in this tournament but he has cracked the top 20 code five times on the season so far too.
Main Bets
Tony Finau feels like a fairly obvious pick this week, especially with rain in the forecast which could soften the surfaces up a touch and make his length an even better advantage. His last two outings here have yielded a win and a tie for second so he clearly loves it when he comes to this part of Texas. You would have to say that his form has been patchy at best this season but he wouldn’t be the first golfer to go to a place with special memories in poor form and be inspired and deliver. The course suits him and conditions could be primed for a deep run so I’ll invest.
You have to have plenty of faith when backing Jason Day in a tournament but if he tees off then hopefully he will go the course and distance because he has an excellent record around Augusta and so it stands to reason that he should go well around a similar layout in a much weaker field than the one he will encounter in a couple of weeks from now. Day did miss The Players Championship in the end with an illness so the fact he is in the field on the eve of the event I hope means that he is back to full health. If he is he arrives off the back of a top 10 finish at Bay Hill and with two top 20s around here he should be primed for a strong run.
Outsiders
Seamus Power arrives here off the best performance of the year so far and his best round in the final round of the Valspar Championship on Sunday and he feels a big price to better the T8 he had last week here. Two of the recent four winners around here have led the field in par three scoring, which probably isn’t a surprise when there is five of them on this course. With that in mind, it is no bad thing that Power is fifth in par three scoring on the PGA Tour this term and the four players above him in that ranking aren’t here so he is the best player in the field this season on the par threes. That all combines to make him an outsider bet for me this week.
Nico Etchavarria isn’t what you would call consistent but he is another who went well on a tight track for a long period last week and he ranks 11 in that par three scoring statistic but he is actually second among those who are in the field. The Colombian has already lost in a playoff this season at the Sony Open and as well as scoring well on the par threes, he is fifth on tour for strokes gained putting. We know there is no rough to speak of and that the greens are enormous on this track so it could very well come down to a putting contest so that would be no bad thing for us Etchavarria backers. At a three-figure price he makes a lot of sense this week.
Tips
Back T.Finau to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Power to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back N.Etchavarria to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back J.Day to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
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