India and South Africa went into the Champions Trophy as two of the fancied sides to win the tournament but one of them will exit the event in the group stage on Sunday when they meet at The Oval.
Officially speaking the knockout stage of this tournament doesn’t begin until Wednesday but Sunday’s match is basically a quarter final in all but name as the winners of the match will face Bangladesh in the semi-final while the loser goes home.
India
It looked after their first match like India were going to be a tough nut to crack in this tournament but nobody told the Sri Lankans that because that is exactly what they did. Even allowing for the best eight sides in the world being here and anyone being able to beat anyone that defeat was a big surprise.
India have put up more than 300 in both innings in this tournament to date but 321 never looked like being enough against Sri Lanka so India will have to improve their bowling if they are going to remain in the tournament. If they don’t they will need more than 320 runs than they got in that match.
South Africa
Both matches that South Africa have played in this tournament so far have followed similar patterns. They started both solidly without being flashy with the bat, stumbled in the middle and then got up to something moderately reasonable and then got canned early on with the ball before fighting back to regain balance.
I’m not sure that tactic is going to work against India. India are a very good side when they are on top so you need to get in front of them early and put the pressure on them and see what they have to offer. It will be interesting to see if South Africa can adopt a more positive approach from the start here.
Team News
India have surprisingly left Ravi Ashwin on the side so far in the tournament but this could be the time to bring him into the team with this match being played on a used wicket. Umesh Yadav could sit out if they do.
South Africa probably can’t change a whole lot because it is with the bat where they have struggled and they don’t really have a better option waiting for them on the side so the Proteas are expected to be unchanged.
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Betting
I’m not going too mad on this match because I’ve got fingers in plenty of Indian pies in this tournament so I really need them to come through. I think they will do but there is no point risking even more on them.
I will take India to lead after 15 overs though. South Africa’s new ball bowlers in this tournament have been smashed to pieces. They shipped 105 in their first 15 overs against Sri Lanka and Fakhar Zaman was giving them a good going over too. With the bat South Africa have been very sedate at the beginning and this Indian side have bowled well up front. Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan have scored freely in this tournament and that can continue to put India in front through 15 overs.
I took David Miller to top score for South Africa in the match against Pakistan which he did and I see no reason to oppose him in this match. AB de Villiers is bang out of form and the top three could be vulnerable to this Indian attack. Miller looked to be hitting the ball really sweetly at Edgbaston on Wednesday and if he is in that form here 15/2 will be a big price on him top scoring again.
Tips
WON – Back India Highest 1st 15 overs for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Betfred
Back it here:
Back D.Miller Top South Africa Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 8.50 with Boylesports
Back him here:
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