We have a double header of action at the ICC Cricket World Cup on Saturday and it begins in Dharamsala as the tournament heads there for the final time for the repeat of the 2015 final as Australia take on New Zealand.
This feels like a massive match in the competition with these two currently occupying the last two semi-final spots but a defeat for either could open the door to a surging Sri Lanka side to pile the pressure on them.
Australia
After a really poor start to the competition, Australia look to be building into their work quite nicely and go into this match having won their last three outings. Winning those matches is one thing but they have got better with each win. They weren’t really given much of a test against the Netherlands last time out but the big thing which came from that success was a couple of players who started the tournament slowly performed strongly.
Australia were quite slow off the mark with the bat in this tournament but some of that was down to the venues they played at, however they are looking much more like the side we would have expected them to be going into the competition. There is never much of a doubt over Australia with the ball but the key thing is that Adam Zampa has caught fire and all of a sudden it is hard to see Australia not making the top four in this tournament.
New Zealand
New Zealand flew out of the traps in this competition but they had their wings clipped by India last week in a match where they were probably one wicket away from opening an end up and getting the job done. They were unable to come out on top in that match but they certainly gave India their biggest test so far and that definitely bodes well for them here. They will need to be at their best to win this game but they haven’t deviated too far from that at any stage of the competition.
It is easy to overlook the New Zealand batting in this competition because their top three or four are just run accumulators rather than belt the ball out of the park and look stylish doing it but the outcome of that is they rarely put up under par totals which is ideal for their bowlers. New Zealand always bowl to the conditions, again it isn’t always flashy but it is mighty effective and I think this unit will really enjoy the conditions they will find in Dharamsala. New Zealand are dangerous here.
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Team News
It might be that this is the match that Travis Head returns at the top of the order for the Australians and if it is then Marnus Labuschagne will make way for him. Marcus Stoinis was rested as a precaution in the win over the Netherlands and could return here.
New Zealand have not reported that anyone is fit to return from injury for this match so they are expected to go into battle with the same XI which narrowly lost to India unless conditions have dried up so much that Ish Sodhi comes into the thinking.
Betting
When I was looking at this match on the horizon my instinct was to head towards New Zealand despite their atrocious record against Australia, particularly in World Cup play, but I wanted a little more than 6/4 to get involved in that. However, there is another way to be on board a New Zealand win which actually keeps an Australia win onside and that is the total runs in the match. I just don’t see how New Zealand win a high scoring match here but I can certainly see them keeping the runs down to give them a chance.
The two new ball attacks on offer here should feast on the swing and seam friendly conditions that this part of the world brings, and if Travis Head does return he might well need an outing to find his timing in Indian conditions. Even if teams get away at the top, which isn’t likely here, then both sides have spinners in good form to peg it all back again. We know matches between these two are always very competitive and there isn’t a weakness in either attack. India only got their 274 target with a couple of overs to spare and that needed a Virat Kohli masterclass to get home. The run line for this one is 580.5 which has only been covered once in four games here, which was the one game England went bonkers with the bat in and that was against a relatively weak Bangladesh attack. I like the under in a day game where dew isn’t going to come into play.
Tips
Back Under 580.5 runs for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
