India have two chances on the horizon to win their Test series against Australia and the first of those comes along from Wednesday when the two nations meet in the third Test in Indore, with the home side knowing a draw wins them the series.
Australia head into the third Test knowing that if they are unable to win it they will lose the series and face the prospect of missing out on the World Test Championship final should other results go against them.
India
India were always going to be huge favourites in these conditions but they might have expected to be challenged a little more than they have been in the opening two games. There was a little bit of a challenge that faced them in the second game but they turned around a tricky situation very nicely and came out on top. I would imagine India will look to win this match rather than just play for the draw and once again are likely to have conditions to suit.
There is still more to come from India I believe. I don’t actually think these pitches help their batting but the obvious trade-off with that is that it suits their bowlers more than anyone and they have enough batters who can do enough damage in these conditions to be able to prosper. India know if a couple of batters come off over the two innings they will have big enough scores for their bowlers to deliver the goods from and it makes them extremely tough to beat.
Australia
I thought all along that the preparations for the series didn’t really give Australia the best chance of coming out on top in it and that is how it has proven to be. They were well out of hope in the opening game and then injuries never helped them in the second match, where to their credit they were in a position to push on and push for a series levelling win, only to suffer a collapse which certainly won’t do much for the confidence of the side for the remainder of the series.
Injuries and absences are not going to help Australia here but if they are going to get themselves back in the series they are going to have to find a way of performing with the bat. It looked like their top order had come up with a plan in the previous game only for the collapse to undo all of their good work. Their bowling attack is beginning to look weak at the seams as well which isn’t ideal, so it would be an incredibly achievement were Australia to come out on top here.
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Team News
There is plenty of talk that the axe could fall on KL Rahul after a poor run of form. Shubman Gill has been in excellent white ball form in recent times and he would be the natural replacement in an otherwise unchanged side.
Australia will be forced into changes with Pat Cummins back home caring for his ill mother and David Warner out on concussion grounds. Josh Hazlewood has gone home too so Steve Smith will captain a side which is likely to include Cameron Green.
Betting
I think we are going to see much of the same from the first two matches here. If anything India might be even more dominant than they have been in the series so far when you consider who Australia are going to be without in this match. Clearly backing India to win isn’t going to make us particularly rich and as I said in the last game there is enough of a lottery element about these conditions that I wouldn’t want to be involved anyway but there is one bet I like.
That comes in the form of the first innings wickets for Ravi Jadeja where the over 2.5 line is even money even though he covered it in the first innings in the second game and took seven in the second innings. I took Ashwin in this market because of the amount of left-handers in the Australia team but with David Warner out it might be that Jadeja is more likely to get wickets in this match. He has 5/47 and 3/68 in the first innings in this series and the even money that he picks up three or more in this match looks too big.
Tips
Back R.Jadeja – Over 2.5 first innings wickets for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Coral
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