The Test series between India and Australia concludes this week when the two teams head to Ahmedabad for the final match of what has suddenly become a very intriguing series, with the result of it still yet to be determined.
India took a 2-0 lead in the series but Australia came roaring back in Indore to set up the chance of leaving these shores with a share of the spoils. India only need to avoid defeat to claim the series but we are set up for a fascinating decider.
India
In these conditions India would have been expected to cruise this series, and that was the way it looked like it was going to be when they went 2-0 up in pretty comfortable, comprehensive and ruthless fashion, however they hit an obstacle they couldn’t overcome in the third game and now need to mind their work if they are going to come out of it with a series win. You wouldn’t think conditions will allow for a draw so India need to be on it from the off.
It was their batting which let them down in the previous game. The pitch has since been ruled not fit for Test cricket so not maximising the opportunity to bat first on it certainly wasn’t helpful to their chances. They would still have been expected to perform better with the bat than they did. A cleaner batting performance here should give them the platform for their bowlers to come up with the goods to send them into the World Test Championship final, with at least a draw needed to secure that spot.
Australia
Given the way that Australia were dispatched in the opening two matches, they probably consider this a bonus to be in this position, especially when you consider the injuries and personnel changes they have had to undertake throughout proceedings. The win in the third game ensured they will be competing in the World Test Championship final in London in June but they still have the chance to leave India without losing the series and potentially kybosh the Indian hopes of facing them there.
To be fair to Australia, when you consider how alien these conditions are to them, their bowlers have generally bowled pretty well in this series. Conditions massively helped them in that second game but they still had to get their side on top and having done that their batters were able to soak up the pressure and get them over the line. If that batting can stay strong in this final game they could yet come out of this series with a draw.
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Team News
It was a little bit of a surprise that India rested Mohammed Shami with the series still live in the previous game. That probably wasn’t the reason for their defeat but he is likely to come back in leaving Umesh Yadav and Mohammed Siraj battling for the other spot.
Australia are expected to be unchanged for this match with Pat Cummins still back home caring for his sick mother. Steve Smith will captain the side once again in his absence with Mitchell Starc and Cameron Green once again the seam options.
Betting
Backing the India spinners for their first innings wicket lines has been successful in this series so far and I expect that plan to remain profitable in this final match. The question is which spinner is most likely to cover and given he’s the slightly bigger price I will go with Ravi Jadeja for a second game in a row. He has covered a 2.5 wicket line in all three matches so far in the first innings and with Australia having more right handers in their side these days I think he’s best suited to the job.
We’ve seen three turning pitches so far in the series and the two Test matches that England played here last time they were in this part of the world the ball turned square pretty much from day one. I don’t expect any different in that regard here so Jadeja, who goes into the final match as the leader in the wicket charts for the series, should be expected to pick up at least three more over the course of the first innings of this one.
Tips
Back R.Jadeja – Over 2.5 wickets for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Coral
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