The final event on the PGA Tour before a two-week sabbatical to Scotland for a couple of events sees the John Deere Classic being played. In the old days this would have been the final round for PGA Tour players into The Open but while that isn’t the case no longer, that reward is still open to the winner.
Sepp Straka didn’t need that exemption for winning this last year but he would have got it had he needed it as he won this title. The Austrian returns looking to successfully defend a title for the first time this week.
Recent Winners
2023 – Seep Straka
2022 – J.T. Poston
2021 – Lucas Glover
2019 – Dylan Frittelli
2018 – Michael Kim
2017 – Bryson DeChambeau
2016 – Ryan Moore
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Brian Harman
2013 – Jordan Spieth
The Course
The strength of the field might have changed but the host course hasn’t as we are back at TPC Deere Run this week. This has always been a low scoring event, which has often been down to the indifferent weather that this part of the world sees at this time of year, and we are set for rain early in the tournament which is likely to present the players with a soft course for them to be aggressive on, so another birdie fest is expected.
The track has remained unchanged since we were last here so it is a par 71 which stretches to 7,289 yards which doesn’t mean you have to bomb it this week, Primarily this is a second shot golf course where it is all about setting up as many birdie chances as possible and convert a good percentage of them. Players with hot putters are the ones to be with. Some of the bunkers have been moved around so a little bit of course management might be needed early.
The Field
We aren’t blessed with a huge amount of big names teeing it up this week with a big tournament on the DP World Tour in Scotland next week followed by the final major of the year so you would call this field a competitive one rather than a standout one. It does have plenty of former winners in it though in the form of Jordan Spieth, J.T. Poston and Lucas Glover not to mention the current champion of the event in Sepp Straka.
There are a few standout names in the field though in the form of Sungjae Im while Jason Day makes a return to the tournament after a lengthy absence. There are also plenty of players chasing a first PGA Tour win where the likelihood is that if it comes it will fall to players such as Aaron Rai, Denny McCarthy, Davis Thompson and Maverick McNealy. Regular veterans here include Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson and Stewart Cink.
Market Leaders
We have joint favourites this week in the form of Sungjae Im and Sepp Straka. Regular readers will know that I don’t like backing defending champions and Straka is a little on the short side to me anyway so I will rule him out of my calculations while Im doesn’t look like he is tracking towards a win, although it has to be said that he has been operating in much stronger fields than the one he is competing in this week. 16/1 is a little too short on both in my eyes although I wouldn’t be totally surprised if either win.
Aaron Rai comes next in the market at 20/1. He went into the final round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week but didn’t get the job done and while he is much improved this year and strikes the ball like a dream, he still hasn’t won on the PGA Tour and that would rule me out of backing him at what is a relatively skinny price even in a field which lacks a lot of depth. I need to see him finish the job when in contention before I get involved at this price.
Two more players who are looking for a first PGA Tour title come along in the next two spots in the betting in the form of Denny McCarthy and Davis Thompson. You would imagine the former is a great fit for here with his putting prowess but his irons can sometimes be a little hit and miss and you have to be putting for birdie to be a success around here. Thompson is tracking in the right direction but feels a little short even in this company without a win to his name.
The former champion Jordan Spieth and Maverick McNealy are the only other players who are shorter than 33/1 in the betting this week. Both can be had at 25/1. Spieth pretty much launched his career around here when he won the tournament for the first time but he just isn’t in the form that makes me want to go in again. McNealy offers up much more interest but still not quite enough to reel me in on a bet.
Main Bets
I like a couple of recent former winners of this tournament this week with the first of those coming in the form of J.T. Poston. He isn’t what you would call pulling up any trees at the minute but he isn’t exactly in a rotten slump either but the last two years here have seen him win the title and finish T6 so this is a place which clearly brings out the best in his game. Poston was T5 at The Heritage which is a second shot golf course like this one and while his form hasn’t been great recently, he still registered a T12 at Colonial and T22 at Muirfield Village. This is an easier test against a weaker field so I like Poston this week.
The other recent champion that I like here is the 2021 winner Lucas Glover who always seems to perform strongly around this track. He was T6 here last year ahead of a couple of wins which got him right back into the forefront of the PGA Tour reckoning. He hasn’t pulled up any trees in recent times either but he was T12 at Colonial and his other form has either come on courses which are too long for him or in fields that are a lot deeper than this one. Glover is a quality ball striker and if he gets the putter going on greens he has gone well on before then he shouldn’t be too far away.
Outsiders
Joel Dahmen actually leads the PGA Tour for proximity to the hole and when you consider that plenty of short irons are going to be fired into these greens that feels like a statistic which could be important when we look back on the week, especially if the rain does arrive early and softens this track up and makes the greens resemble target practice. There is some form coming out of Dahmen too. He was in the 10 in Canada at the beginning of June and was much better than the T25 he finished last week after 54 holes before a final round to forget but he did shoot 64 in the second round in Detroit and if he scores like that here he’ll go close.
Patton Kizzire is the other player who interests me this week. His iron play this season has been absolutely superb. He is fourth in greens in regulation and eight in the proximity to the hole so he is going to set up a lot of chances to score this week. His putting stats aren’t what we were used to seeing from him earlier in his career but we know it is in there if he can just unlock it. He has a top 10 and a top 20 in his last three starts so he might be ticking into a bit of form. He gained strokes with the putter in the first of those which is promising. I’ll pay to see if he can do the same here.
Tips
Back J.T. Poston to win John Deere Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back L.Glover to win John Deere Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Dahmen to win John Deere Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back P.Kizzire to win John Deere Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
