Most Rushing Yards
I think there are three outstanding candidates to lead the NFL in rushing yards in 2016 then a group of others that have some question marks. This was a weak area last year as 1,107 yards would have placed a runner in the top 3!
The Big Three
Every season Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings) has played more than 12 games he has exceeded 1,000 rushing yards. In his 9 year NFL career he has 3 rushing titles (2008, 2012 and 2015). He is bookmakers favourites to win the rushing crown again in 2016 at 4.33-6.00. If he stays healthy he will be in the running to be in the top 3. One huge factor hurts – the Vikings lost starting QB Teddy Bridgwater to a season ending injury last week. The new QB will be backup Shaun Hill. This is likely to affect the playcalling making the Vikings a run first team. That sounds great as more runs = more yards. In theory that is the case.
In reality, Peterson is 31, he has a lot of mileage on his legs and has suffered injuries in the past. If the passing game cannot function opponents will just tee off on the run game shutting it down. I will leave AP alone in 2016.
Todd Gurley (Los Angeles Rams) was the 2015 Offensive Rookie of the Year following a great rookie season that saw him finish with the third most rushing yards. He displayed great long speed and an ability to both make tacklers miss and bowl over them. The Rams OL are solid in the running game and I can see big numbers once more. The question with the Rams is how effective will the passing game be? That is the reason, like with AP in Minnesota, that I cannot back Gurley in this market.
Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys) will feature in another market we cover. He starts the 2016 season as third favourite to win the rushing yardage title. This is high praise for a rookie but he is similar in many ways to Gurley. He has the speed to break long runs but he also possesses excellent vision. Elliott has one huge plus and one huge negative that reflects the variance in his odds (8.0-13.0). The positive is that Dallas has the best OL in the NFC and possibly the NFL. They will open all sorts of holes for him to run through. The negative is the loss of QB Tony Romo to injury, possibly for the whole 2016 season.
They will start rookie Dak Prescott and there may be some growing pains with the passing game. What they have that the Vikings and Rams don’t is a true number one WR is Dez Bryant. He has to be covered, even with a rookie QB and this will open space for Elliott. I like Elliott to win this market.
The Contenders
I would have included Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh Steelers) above but he is suspended for the first three games of the season. He will start his season 250+ yards behind his rivals.
Jamal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs) has mercurial skills but is oft-injured. He missed 11 games in 2015, the 4th time in 8 seasons he has lost time to injury. He can be backed EW as high as 21.0. The injury factor and the schedule make be hesitant to back him.
Lamar Miller left Miami for the Houston Texans in the off-season. He replaces Arian Foster as the number one RB and is 4th favourite in the bookies odds at 9.0-13.0. I can see a 1,100-1,200 yard season from him but I don’t think this will be enough for a return.
The question regarding Doug Martin (Tampa Bay) is which version shows up? The 2012 and 2015 version was dynamic rushing for 1,400+ yards each season. The 2013 and 2014 version averaged 475 yards! That is too mush risk for me – even on an improving team
LeSean McCoy (Buffalo Bills) can be backed at odds of 13.0-17.0. In the last 6 years he has exceeded 1,000 yards 4 times with a high of 1,607 in 2013. He would have gone well over 1,000 yards in 2015 too but for an MCL strain ending his season afer 12 games. The recovery from injury is a concern and prevents me from backing him.
David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals) had a three game stretch in his rookie season in 2015 where he rushed for 378 yards. He also had a number of games where he rushed for less than 30 yards (10 games). If the Cardinals use him properly he could win the rushing title. He has speed and explosiveness in his game and the Cardinals OL is strong at run blocking. I like him at odds of 21.0.
Outsiders
Eddie Lacy (Green Bay) can be backed at odds in the low 20s. He has lost a lot of weight in the pre-season and at his best is a between the tackles runner that piles up yard after yard. There have been stretches of his career where he looks all-world and other where he is ordinary. There is not enough consistency for me.
The two-headed Tennessee Titans monster of DeMarco Murray and rookie Derrick Henry excites. This preseason they have bullied everyone, with each player piling up big yardage. The OL is very strong in the run game and I could foresee them combing for over 2,000 rushing yards in 2016. I’m not sure either can be backed as they will share carries limiting their individual yardage totals. I’m tempted to place a small bet on Murray at 51.0 or Henry at 101.0. Those odds are too high.
Most Rushing Yards – Tips
WON – Bet on Ezekiel Elliott to lead the NFL in rushing yards with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 13.0 with Skybet.
Back Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing yards with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 101.0 with Skybet.
Bet here:
Back David Johnson to lead the NFL in rushing yards with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 21.0 with Betfred.
Bet here:
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