The second part of the huge double header in the NFL playoffs on Sunday night sees the AFC Championship title being won and lost when the defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills.
The Chiefs are looking to be the first team to successfully defend the Vince Lombardi Trophy since New England Patriots in 2005 and are one win away from giving themselves the chance to do it. The Buffalo Bills are out to reach their first Super Bowl since 1993.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs have been the best team in the NFL this season as far as the standings and records are concerned and now they are one win away from a return to the Super Bowl. Their critics will argue that their record is better than their play in terms of the fact that a lot of their wins are by one score or less, but the flip side of that is that they know how to win tight matches and that is never a bad commodity to have at this stage of a season.
There were concerns going into this match for the Chiefs in that it was unsure earlier in the week whether star quarterback Patrick Mahomes would come through the concussion protocols but he has been cleared to take his place in this match. That should ensure the Chiefs offense is in decent nick so if their defence can muscle up and make plays like it did against the Cleveland Browns last week then the home side are likely to be very hard to beat.
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Buffalo Bills
This has been the best season that the Buffalo Bills have had since they last went to the Super Bowl some 28 years ago and now they are one match from concluding it at the big game in Tampa Bay in two weeks. The reason why the Bills have made it this far is that they have quality on both sides of the ball. They were fortunate that Lamar Jackson exited the game early in their win over the Baltimore Ravens last week but they took full advantage of that.
The Bills head into this match off the back of eight successive wins which but for that miracle play by the Arizona Cardinals late on would have been 12 wins on the trot. They will be hoping that they haven’t peaked too soon but if they are coming to the boil they have a lot of confidence behind them. Their defence faces its acid test here but with the stars they have on offense if the defence can make a few plays the Bills could be right there at the end.
Betting
The NFC Championship game looks a cracker and this one looks every bit as good although the outcome of it could well depend on just how fit Patrick Mahomes is. He may have passed his concussion protocols but he was suffering with a turf toe last week and if his mobility is limited there is a chance he might not even finish the match. Either way I think the point line is a little high at 54.5 because I’m expecting a lot of lengthy drives in this match with defences prepared to give up short plays but protect the long ones.
As well as he did to close out the match last week, if Chad Henne enters the game at any point the Chiefs’ offense will be affected but even if he doesn’t these two have already played out one relatively low scoring match this season by their standards. They met earlier in the campaign when the Chiefs won 26-17. Given what is at stake here and that injury cloud over Mahomes I’m not sure we are going to see an extra 12pts here. I’ll play the under in what should be an interesting and great game to watch but a relatively low scoring one nevertheless.
Tips
Back Under 54.5pts for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Betfair
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