The final match of a big Sunday in Week 12 of the NFL season will come along in the Sunday Night Football where the top spot in the AFC North is potentially at stake when the Baltimore Ravens host the Cleveland Browns in a real huge game.
The Ravens start the night leading the way in the North but they will surrender that position should the Browns leave Maryland with the win and with just six weeks of the regular season left this could be the match which determines the winner of the division, although the other two teams in it will have plenty to say about that.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens will head into this match with a 7-3 record for their season even though they haven’t really shown us everything they have over a consistent period. To be fair to the Ravens they haven’t escaped the immense amount of injuries that have done the rounds this season but I also feel that sometimes they have got caught between who they are and this team they are mysteriously looking to mould into, particularly when it comes to offense.
Although they are 7-3, two of those losses have come in their last five outings so they go into this match in mixed form. A lot of that is down to injuries. They have struggled for running backs all season and now a large part of their defence is decimated as well so if the Ravens are going to win this they are going to have to do it tough. The good thing about the Ravens is they rarely beat themselves and if they put together a clean game here it might be enough.
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Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns are 6-5 for the season so everything that can be said about the campaign the Baltimore Ravens have put together also applies to them. The only difference is that although the Browns have had some injuries this term, some of their problems have been created by their own personnel. If the Browns are going to make the playoffs then they need to get everyone fit and keep them that way and are probably going to need five wins from their last six matches.
I would expect to see the Browns play the sort of football which got them into the playoffs last season here. Both their running backs are expected to be ready to rumble in this match and they are the key not just here but for the remainder of the season. Cleveland have their bye next week so they can throw everything they have got at the Ravens here knowing that anything but a victory and they will need something unlikely to make the playoffs.
Betting
I wouldn’t be completely surprised if the Cleveland Browns win this match, in fact I think they should win this match, but this is the Cleveland Browns and they don’t always follow sporting logic so rather than back them to win I’ll take them with the spread. Baltimore don’t have the best recent record against the spread as a favourite. They are only 2-6 in the last eight matches where they have been favourites and we’ve seen them need overtime in one such match earlier in the season against the Indianapolis Colts and a miracle field goal to see off the Houston Texans. Neither was enough to cover the spread.
I think with the injuries that the Baltimore Ravens have they will just want to win and will manage the clock accordingly. Winning by a massive margin isn’t going to be of any interest to them so the 3.5pt spread looks 0.5 too high and maybe even more than that. The key injuries for the Ravens here involve their defensive line so with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb grounding and pounding the Browns can make huge yards and knock time off the clock at the same time. Whether they win or not I think they’ll stay within a field goal.
Tips
Back Cleveland Browns (+3.5) to beat Baltimore Ravens for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Boylesports
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