The penultimate week of the NFL 2024 season continues with a triple header of action on Saturday night and it begins at Gillette Stadium where the New England Patriots continue to play out their year against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Patriots have never been in contention to reach the playoffs but the Chargers can secure a spot in the postseason if they win this one so this is all about the Los Angeles outfit but New England are proud enough to attempt to play party poopers.
New England Patriots
A first season without the coaching services of Bill Belichick was always going to see something of a transition period be undertaken at Gillette Stadium but I don’t think anyone had a 3-12 record as part of the thinking. Clearly the Patriots are going to be picking very early in the draft in April and how early it will be depends both on how they go in their last two matches and what happens with teams such as the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders.
The Patriots head into this match off the back of five straight defeats. In fact, since they won the opening match of the season, the Patriots have only beaten the New York Jets and Chicago Bears, neither of which are a particularly strong form guide. The Patriots have lost three of these latest five matches by just the one score which suggests they might not be quite as bad as the record suggests but clearly this is a roster that needs more repairing in the off season.
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Los Angeles Chargers
While the New England Patriots would have been expected to fade somewhat, the Los Angeles Chargers were widely fancied to be huge improvers over the course of the year under their new boss Jim Harbaugh. That has been the case and now they get the chance to crown that improvement by securing an extension to their season. They head into this match knowing that if they are unable to get the job done here, they have a meeting with the Las Vegas Raiders next week to get over the line in.
At 9-6, the Chargers are having a decent year and a win here would not only secure the postseason spot but would keep them as favourites for the number six seed which could see them avoid having to go to Buffalo in the opening week of the playoffs. This is a Bolts side who have been built on their defence but who put up 34 points against the Denver Broncos last week. The Chargers have lost three of their last five so they’ll be looking for a couple of convincing showings to take into the playoffs with them.
Betting
You would imagine that the Los Angeles Chargers will come up with a way to win this match, particularly when you consider that they have had an extra few days to prepare for this one with them being involved in the Thursday night game last week, but New England are generally more competitive on home turf and conditions might dictate that this is closer than it looks. I can’t bring myself to get involved in New England though when they are playing for nothing so I’ll go for a player prop bet here.
That comes in the rushing yards of Antonio Gibson, the running back who has been second in line this term but for whom Jared Mayo has hinted might get the starting role here. Even if he doesn’t start and he is keeping the Chargers guessing, you would imagine that with words like that Gibson will get more carries than he might otherwise have got. He has a rushing yards line of 29.5 which he has covered in three of his last four matches with 28 yards in the other. He has gone that from six, seven, seven and 10 carries in those games so if he goes deeper into double figures for carries here this line should get covered comfortably. Gibson has been averaging a nudge over 4.5 yards per carry this season and the Chargers defence are beginning to leak more rushing yards the longer the season has gone on. In the freezing cold I expect Gibson to get the carries required to get to 30 yards.
Tips
Back A.Gibson – Over 29.5 rushing yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Bet365
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