The last wildcard match in the AFC in the NFL 2024 Playoffs opens up a triple header of action on Sunday and it comes from the New York area as the Buffalo Bills look to set up a home clash with the Baltimore Ravens when they host the Denver Broncos.
The Denver Broncos were the last team into the playoffs and their reward for winning here will be a trip to take on the Kansas City Chiefs but many are expecting the Bills to be too good here. It will be interesting to see if that is how it plays out.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills have been cruising towards the playoffs for the entirety of the season. At one stage they were heavily in the mix for the number one seed in the AFC and while that didn’t quite come to pass, they were never in any danger of not making the playoffs and have had their spot in them secured for a month or so but if there is a concern it is that a lack of a challenge in their division could have left them a little underdone from a battle point of view.
Prior to last week, Buffalo Bills had won 10 of their last 11 matches with some offensive power getting them over the line in the majority of those. There were occasions where their defence has been exposed and that will be a concern the longer they go into these playoffs but they will be expected to come through here. We shouldn’t take too much notice of the defeat to the New England Patriots last week as many of the starters were given the night off.
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Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos were the last team into the playoffs in the AFC and as a result of that they will know that if they are going to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy then they will have to win three away games before they get the chance to win in New Orleans. If there is a concern in what is a knockout clash it could be that they had three goes to secure their spot in the playoffs and needed all three of them. They only secured it against a Kansas City Chiefs side who rested all of their starters too.
The big problem in those two matches was that their defence were unable to have any answers to the Los Angeles Chargers or the Cincinnati Bengals. In isolation that isn’t a huge negative because they are two powerful quarterbacks with decent offenses. The issue is that they face an identical test to that here so they will need their defence to come to the party. The other issue is that they have a rookie quarterback in his first playoff match which isn’t always a positive situation.
Betting
I’m a little surprised that the Buffalo Bills are only being asked to cover a nudge over a touchdown here. I’m firmly of the belief that the Denver Broncos have been a little overrated by their results because they were only 1-7 against teams with a level record or better this season, if we ignore last week where they played the Kansas City Chiefs backups. You could argue that they still stayed within seven points of Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals but the first of those was the short week and the second Cincinnati made a right mess of things from in front.
I don’t see the Buffalo Bills doing the same. They have a potential MVP candidate in Josh Allen and an offense which is more than capable of feasting on a defence which has fallen apart in the last month or so and the Bills own defence is getting better and healthier. When you throw in that we have a rookie quarterback on the road in his postseason debut I think this one is all about the Buffalo Bills and I would be surprised if the Broncos stay within eight here.
Tips
Back Buffalo Bills (-7.5) to beat Denver Broncos for a 3/10 stake at 1.87 with Betfred
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