Monday Night Football this week takes place in Mexico City in the final overseas game of 2016 in the NFL International Series.
Kickoff – 8.30pm Eastern – 1.30am UK
Houston Texans v Oakland Raiders
Team Markets
Lets look at some stats first. Each team is leading their division after 10 weeks. The Texans have a 6-3 record atop the AFC South and the Raiders lead the AFC West at 7-2. Officially, the Raiders are the home team for this game, but effectively this is an away game for each team. The Raiders are 5-0 on the road whilst the Texans are 1-3. Each team is on form – the Texans have two straight wins whilst the Raiders have 3. An Oakland win sees them pull a game clear of thier rivals in the AFC West following Kansas City Chiefs surprising loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday.
A major difference between the two teams is in scoring. The Raiders are +22, the Texans are -27. The Raiders averages per game are – offence (27.2) and defence (24.7). The Texans are – offence (17.8) and defence (20.88). Adding those scoring averages gives us 45.0 points per game scored and 45.5 conceeded. The bookmakers have unsurprisingly set the points line for the game at 45.0.
Of course it’s not quite as easy as that to determine what might happen. The Raiders last three games have seen big improvements in the defence whilst the offence has averaged 31 points per game. This includes an impressive 30 in their last game against the Broncos. In that game the Raiders rushed for more than 220 yards, one week after passing for over 500. This is a balanced offence with weapons in the running and passing games.
The Raiders also have the best OL in the AFC. Raiders QB Derek Carr gets sacked at an average of about 1 per game – lowest in the NFL. This gives him time to find his impressive WR duo of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. As a duo they are the number 1 tandem in the NFL in terms of catches, yards and touchdowns. The Raiders are deadly in the red zone – scoring on 100% of their trips into the opponents 20 yard line this season. They also do not turn the ball over.
The Texans counter with an above average defence. They miss J.J. Watt but which team wouldn’t? Still they have been able to get after the quarterback this season and have some really good players. CB A.J Bouye leads the Pro Football Focus ratings at that position. He has a tough matchup here with two excellent route runners – especially if Carr has time to throw.
I think we might see a similar outcome to the Cowboys-Ravens game on Sunday. In that game the Ravens defence was competitive early but the Dallas OL wore them down. In the second half the Cowboys moved the ball at will.
The Texans offence is a mess. QB Brock Osweiler is looking like a total bust thus far. He has been inconsistent, inaccurate and unable to build a rapport with his WR’s. DeAndre Hopkins numbers have been a huge disappointment in 2016. Osweiler just hasn’t been able to connect with him. Osweiler is terrible when pressured. Raiders DE Khlail Mack sacked him 5 times in a game in 2015 when Osweiler was in Denver. Mack is coming off a 2 sack game in week 10 and will be looking to hit Brock early and often. Oakland’s secondary has been able to get key turnovers in recent weeks and lead the NFL in forced fumbles (14).
I do feel the Texans cannot win in Mexico City unless they play turnover free and get a big effort from their running game. The Texans running game is solid with RB Lamar Miller leading the way. The Raiders have been vulnerable to runs between the tackles so look for Houston to attack there.
I think the final score will be something like 27-13 Oakland. This makes the point spread of 6 very attractive indeed in the 1.91-1.95 range.
Player Markets
Raiders WR Amari Cooper comes in to this game with a 58-843-2tds line. He has 4 games in excess of 128 yards receiving and his per game averages are – 6.44 catches for 93.7 yards. His lines for each category here are 4.5 catches or 61.5 yards. I think he goes over both in this game but the odds for the 4.5 catches are higher at 2.0 so I will take that line.
RB Lamar Miller has averaged over 23 carries per game in the last 4 Texans games including 28 in week 10. Miller’s line here is 15.5 – this seems to be a very generous line. The only way he doesn’t get this is if Oakland jump out to a big first half lead and Houston is forced to pass.
Monday Night Football – Tips
WON – Back the Oakland Raiders (-6.0) to beat the Houston Texans with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.95 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Amari Cooper to have more than 4.5 catches with a 4.0/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power.
WON – Back Lamar Miller to have more than 15.5 rushes with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
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