The NFL playoffs get underway on Saturday night and they begin in Houston where the AFC South winning Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills with the winners heading off to either the Baltimore Ravens or New England Patriots next week or hosting the Tennessee Titans.
These two sides had identical 10-6 records during the regular season which suggests we should be in for something of a close contest to get things underway, as two sides who are swimming under the radar bid to set up a second postseason outing.
Houston Texans
Although the Houston Texans have a 10-6 record they are probably better than that because having won the AFC South title a week from the end of the season, they utilised the opportunity to rest all their major starters in a defeat to the Tennessee Titans last week. That will mean they go into this match fresh and those who had been playing with knocks have had the opportunity to recover over the fortnight, so in theory the Texans should be good to go.
One man they have been able to get back fit is JJ Watt and you would think the elite pass rusher will have a huge impression on this contest if he is a full capability. Another man who is sure to have a say in the overall outcome is Deshaun Watson, a quarterback who can make plays with his own legs but who has a wonderful relationship with his receivers to get his side down the field. Eight of Houston’s 10 wins this season have come by seven points or fewer so they hold their nerve under pressure well, which bodes well for them.
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Buffalo Bills
Things were even better than a 10-6 record for the Buffalo Bills at one stage. They were 9-3 for their campaign but as the AFC East title got away from them their form took a turn for the worse and they go into this wildcard in indifferent form if you look at that, but two of the losses were against the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots and the other one was last week when they had already secured the number five seed, so just how much we read into the defeats is a open to debate.
The success of the Buffalo Bills this season has come around their defence which goes into the postseason ranked third in the league in that discipline. If the old adage that defence wins championships still rings true that will give the Bills plenty of confidence. The question mark is how Josh Allen will perform at quarterback in his first playoff match. He has impressed at times this season but this is a new thing entirely.
Betting
I fancy this could be one of those tight, low scoring playoff matches, the sort of game this format was made for. Both sides can more than mix it in defensive areas and while Houston are vibrant on offense there has to be question marks over how the Bills will go when it comes to offense. Not only is Josh Allen in his first postseason match but he is likely to have an elite pass rusher putting pressure on him.
As ever in these playoff matches this isn’t about winning by plenty and running up the score so controlling the clock will be a big feature of the contest as well. That all makes me think that points will be pretty tough to come by even though we are indoors here. Both teams can eat up the clock when in front and can defend strongly in the red zone so I think 43.5 points could be a little too high in a match where by no means are both sides guaranteed to put up more than 20 each.
Tips
WON – Back Under 43.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.94 with 888sport
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