The NFL schedule for week 16 moves forward a day as the Sunday is Christmas Day. This week I am going with two all-AFC clashes, one including the winless Cleveland Browns.
Early Kickoff – 1pm Eastern 6pm UK
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Team Markets
The red-hot Titans meet the Jaguars in an AFC South divisional game. The Titans are coming off a stunning late win over the favoured Kansas City Chiefs in week 15. They are now tied with the Houston Texans atop the division but trail on the tie-breaker. The Titans and Texans clash in week 17 in what may be the division decider. In all likelihood, only the division winner from this division will advance to the playoffs. That makes this a must win for the Titans.
Tennessee have really impressed me this season. The ground based offense with RBs DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry has produced all season long. This has taken pressure off QB Marcus Mariota and has helped them to an 8-6 record. Both of the Titans lines are strong – the OL, especially the two OTs have been excellent and the DL gets after the passer. The secondary can be beaten but they do force turnovers.
Jacksonville looked primed to breakthrough after a strong second half of the season in 2015. They have arguably been the leagues most disappointing team this year and have a 2-12 record with 9 straight losses. The defense has been their strongest unit this season but they are getting next to nothing from the passing game. Part of that is coaching – head coach and the offensive co-ordinator have been sacked in recent weeks, part is the QB Blake Bortles. He has been wretched – throwing interceptions and simply missing a lot of throws. The Jaguars have an interim HC for the remaining two games. I’m not sure if he is a viable candidate for the job full-time. The big question for the Jags is ‘have they thrown in the towel’ on the season. Recent performances suggest this might be the case.
As mentioned in previous posts I’m not keen on betting against streaks in US sport. Amazingly, the Titans are only 4.5 point favourites in this game. The key for me in this game is the Tennessee number 3 ranked run offense overpowering the Jaguars number 21 run defense. If the Jaguars cannot stop the run then play-action passes will kill them. There is too much on the line for the Titans to lose this game. Back then with confidence.
Player Markets
The player performance of TEs has really paid dividends for myself and Kev in out tips this season. I see no reason to look elsewhere in this game. Titans TE Delanie Walker is a key weapon in their passing attack. He has a yardage line of 54.5 here and I like him to exceed this. In the first meeting between the teams he had a 4-75 line. Last week against a better Chiefs secondary he went 6-55 so the omens are good on the overs.
Early Kickoff – 1pm Eastern 6pm UK
San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns
Team Markets
This is a game between two teams that are fighting for draft pick slots. The Browns are a stunning 0-14 this season and on track to become the first 0-16 team (and second ever) since Detroit in 2008. What can you say about Cleveland? They have been beset with injuries, QB changes galore, breakdowns in coverage on defense and special teams at crucial times and an OL that is a turnstyle for opposing pass rushers. There have been a couple of bright spots in WR Terrelle Pryor and DT Danny Shelton but the number one draft pick looks to be Cleveland bound.
The Chargers season had promise but a rash of injuries at practically every positional group destroyed cohesion and their ability to consistently make plays. They also play in the NFL’s strongest division – the AFC West and have been beaten by their divisional rivals regularly. Even so they have a 5-9 record and have at least been competitive in games. True, QB Philip Rivers has struggled with turnovers of late but the defense has been good, especially with rookie DE Joey Bosa in the lineup. Looking at this game, the Chargers have too many weapons on both sides of the ball for Cleveland to break their losing streak. The TE duo of Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry should have their way with the Browns secondary. I can also see the pass-rush led by Bosa and OLB Melvin Ingram having a big day.
Again I think the bookmakers are a little conservative with the spread giving the Browns a +5.5 start. I would be stunned if the Browns score more than 16 points in this one. That means the defense has to hold the Chargers under 22 points when their season average points conceeded per game is closer to 30! San Diego will win this one with something to spare.
Player Markets
Another player market another TE pick. Chargers TE Hunter Henry has a 32-435-7 tds line on the season. That gives him a per game average of about 33 yards per game. The Browns stats vs TEs in 2016 are 84-902-12 tds for a per game yardage average of about 65 yards per game. Henry’s performance line for this game is 33.5 which looks easily doable especially with his TE partner Antonio Gates carrying a knock.
Week 16 Tips
Bet on the Tennessee Titans (-4.5) to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.91 with Paddy Power.
Back them here:
Bet on San Diego Chargers (-5.5) to beat the Cleveland Browns with a 4.0/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365.
Back them here:
Bet on Delanie Walker to go over 54.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Hunter Henry to go over 33.5 receiving yards with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Back them here:
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