I have tips on two games on the Week 10 Regular Season schedule in this preview. I will also be adding a 1st Touchdown Scorer prediction for the live Sky Sports games. This will allow us to take advantage of a great offer from Betfair.
Early Games – 1pm Eastern 6pm UK
Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
Team Markets
The Chiefs come into this game on a streak of 4 wins and 17 wins in their last 20 games. The latter is the best record in the NFL over that time. The Panthers started the season 1-5 but have won their last two games to have a semi-respectable 3-5 record.
Somehow Carolina are favourites to win this game. I think the bookies have this wrong. They are overestimating the Panthers, underestimating the Chiefs and overplaying the Chiefs injury report. Yes, the Chiefs will be without star OLB Justin Houston – but he has not played a down this year anyway. WR Jeremy Maclin is out and that does take away the deep threat element from the Chiefs passing game. To counter that QB Alex Smith looks set to return. That means ball control efficient offence with few turnovers. RB Spencer Ware is also set to play and I can see him and TE Travis Kelce having decent games.
The Panthers counter with QB Cam Newton, the big WRs & TE Greg Olsen. Newton has been hit a lot this year and I can see the Chiefs attacking him with OLB Dee Ford leading the pass rush. The Chiefs defence forces lots of turnovers and I think Carolina has to play turnover free to have any chance. I’m not sure they will. As a Raiders fan I would love Carolina to win as this would help Oakland in the AFC West standings. I just don’t see it. Head Coach Andy Reid has this Kansas City team playing well and I see them moving to 7-2.
I was tempted by the 2.37 on offer for the Chiefs to win outright. However, seeing as they are on the road I will take them +3 on the spread in the 1.91-1.95 range.
Player Markets
I like the lines for both TEs in this game.
Panthers TE Greg Olsen is having a monster season – he is on target for something like 1,350 receiving yards. He is Cam Newtons favourite target and goes against the weakness of the Chiefs secondary – its safeties. His line of 55.5 is way too low.
Similarly, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is the primary target in the Chiefs passing game. The return of QB Alex Smith only helps Kelce’s stats. He will get a lot of targets as the Chiefs will focus on the short and mid-range passing games. His line is slightly higher at 61.5. I like the overs here too.
Sky Sports Early Game – 1st Touchdown Scorer
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
One of our partners has an offer that gives us a chance of a huge odds boost. They are offering treble odds on 1st Touchdown Scorers if they score in the 1st Quarter. This is only for games shown live on Sky Sports in the UK.
The early game on Sky Sports is the Falcons against the Eagles in Philadelphia. Obviously, we don’t know which team will win the coin toss or get the ball first so we really are taking a punt.
I like the Falcons offence to score first. It is more explosive than the Eagles and more consistent. So the obvious choices are WR Julio Jones or one of the RB’s Tevin Coleman or Devonta Freeman.
I will take a small bet on Jones (on a deep pass) to score the 1st touchdown.
Late Games – 4pm Eastern 9pm UK
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers
Team Markets
How are the Steelers favourites to win this game? The Cowboys are leading the NFC East with a 7-1 record with 7 wins on the bounce. They are playing error free football on offence with a powerful running game and dominant OL.
The Steelers even are a mess with QB Ben Rothlisberger back in the lineup. The offence is out of synch and the defence cannot stop the run. Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi gashed the Steelers for more than 200 yards three games ago. Here they play one of the best OL in the NFL and the best rushing attack led by rookie Ezekiel Elliott and Alfred Morris.
Yes, if the Steelers offence clicks it can be explosive and is capable of scoring lots of points. On occasion this has transpired this season but they have 3 losses in a row and are really struggling to score with any regularity. That put pressure on the defence and has broken a lot particularly against the run. Unusually, for a Steelers defence they do not force a lot of turnovers (only 4 interceptions in 8 games). I think they will struggle against WRs Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley in the slot.
I can envisage the Cowboys controlling the ball for 35 minutes+ in this one and will take them to win outright at 2.20.
Player Markets
For once I’m not going with Cole Beasley! I like Cowboys TE Jason Witten’s line at 46.5 more than I like Beasley’s at 53.5. The Cowboys will run the ball a lot and hit Witten on underneath routes and from play action passes. Bet on the overs!
Sunday Games – Week 10 – Tips
Team Markets
WON – Bet on Kansas City Chiefs (+3) to beat Carolina Panthers with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.91 with Ladbrokes.
Back them here:
WON – Bet on Dallas Cowboys to beat Pittsburgh Steelers with a 3.5/10 stake at 2.20 with Skybet.
Back them here:
Player Markets
Bet on Greg Olsen to exceed 55.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Back Travis Kelce to exceed 61.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
WON – Bet on Jason Witten to exceed 46.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Back them all here:
1st Touchdown Scorer (Odds treble if the bet wins)
Back Julio Jones to be first touchdown scorer in the Atlanta Falcons v Philadelphia Eagles game as ODDS with a 0.5/10 stake at 9.00 with Betfair.
Back him here:
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