The final set of games in the 2016 NFL Regular Season start on Sunday. From a betting perspective this is the toughest week of the season.There are a number of reasons for this:
- Some teams have wrapped up their divisions and will not play their starters . The Steelers are mulling sitting their QB Ben Rothlisberger, RB LeVeon Bell and WR Antonio Brown for the entire game;
- Some teams e.g. Cowboys, may play their key starters for one or two series only;
- Jacksonville and now Buffalo are playing under interim head-coaches. There is no idea how the teams will play in these scenarios. The Jaguars pulled off a stunning win in week 16. The Bills have already announced they will start E. J. Manuel at QB against the Jets. His past performances have been shaky at best;
- The Raiders and Titans lost their starting QBs to injuries in week 16. How their backups fare is an unknown;
- Do the Browns go for the win against the Steelers (already expected to be missing key players) and risk losing the number one pick in the 2017 draft to the 49ers?
These uncertainties have resulted in the bookmakers holding off on making player performance lines available. So this preview will look at team markets only.
I don’t like the look of anything in the early games. If pushed I would look at Tampa -4 to beat Carolina and New England to win straight up against Miami. That would confirm the number one playoff seed for the Patriots in the AFC.
Late kickoffs 4.25pm Eastern – 9.25pm UK
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
This NFC South clash sees the Falcons hosting the Saints. Atlanta with a 10-5 record knows a win secures the 2nd seed in the NFC playoff chase. That would guarantee them a week off and a home game in two weekends time. The Saints at 7-9 are aiming to try to win to get to .500 for the season.
Coming in to this game the Falcons are on a 3 game win streak – led by possible NFL MVP Matt Ryan (who saw that coming?). The Saints too bring a win streak into this game with wins in weeks 15 ans 16.
The Falcons won the first game between the two teams in week 3 by a 45-32 scoreline. The Saints defense simply couldn’t handle the Falcons potent offense in that game. Coming in to week 17 the Falcons have the number two ranked offense in the NFL in yards per game (412.5) and lead the NFL in points per game (33.5). Atlanta should have little trouble moving the ball against the New Orleans defense. It is ranked 25th in yards per game (369.4) and 30th in points conceded per game (27.7).
The Saints have the top ranked offense at 422.9 yards per game led by NFL passing yardage leader QB Drew Brees. The Falcons defense isn’t much better than the Saints except in points allowed per game (24.9).
So how will this go? The total points line has been set at 56.5 and this seems reasonable given the offensive firepower. For me the more attractive bet is the Falcons -7. In the last three games they have won by 28, 28 and 17 points. The offense has been purring, especially the running game and this has allowed the defense to attack. I think the Saints will be competitive with QB Drew Brees but ultimately lose by 10 as their defense folds.
A side note – a number of players in this game have the chance to lead the league in specific statistical categories at season end. These include:
- Drew Brees and Matt Ryan – battling it out for the NFL passing yards title;
- Falcons WR Julio Jones could lead the NFL in receiving yards. He would have already won this if not for missing weeks 14 and 15 due to a turf toe injury;
- Atlanta OLB Vic Beasley could win the sacks title.
Late kickoffs 4.25pm Eastern – 9.25pm UK
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
The Chiefs must win this game and hope the Raiders lose in Denver to claim the AFC West division title. That would secure the number two playoff seeding in the AFC and a game in Arrowhead in two weeks time.
Kansas City are flying. But for an unexpected loss at home to the Titans in week 15 they would be level with Oakland at 12-3. They do have 9 wins in their last 11 games and are getting healthier as some key injured players return tot heir starting lineup. The Chargers season has been hit by injuries, lots of them, poor QB play from Philip Rivers and inexplicable circumstances that have led to losses in close games. They also lost to the previous winless Cleveland Browns in week 16!
Kansas City’s offense has received a real lighting bolt of energy and speed from rookie sensation WR/RB/PR Tyreek Hill. He is a touchdown threat on every single play. Hill had a 68 yard touchdown run in week 15 and a 70 yarder in week 16. Complimenting Hill is TE Travis Kelce. He leads the NFL at his position in catches (84) and yards (1,117) and has 5 100+ yard games in the last 6 weeks.
The Chargers are slumping. They were unable to stop the Browns offense at all in week 16. The running game has disappeared with the injury to RB Melvin Gordon and as mentioned above QB Philip Rivers is having a poor season. Rivers has too many turnovers for the Chargers to win games. Here he faces the Chiefs defense that leads the NFL in forced turnovers. I think this could get ugly quickly for the Chargers.
I’m going with the spread on this game too with Kansas City at -4.5. The Chiefs are simply stronger than the Chargers at nearly every position group. They don’t make many mistakes and know how to win in the regular season. My only hope as a Raiders fan is that Oakland can win in Denver denying the Chiefs the division win!
Week 17 Tips
Back the Atlanta Falcons -7 to beat the New Orleans Saints for a 3.0/10 stake at 1.91 with Skybet.
Bet here:
Back the Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) to beat the San Diego Chargers with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.91 with BetVictor.
Bet here:
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