Week 5 – Sunday Game – Betting Preview
Week 5 of the NFL season sees a number of players returning from suspensions including Patriots QB Tom Brady. This week I will be looking at games that include (arguably) the two best teams in the NFL plus some player markets from a 3rd game.
Early Kickoffs – 1pm Eastern of 6pm UK
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
Patriots fans would probably argue that they would be 4-0 right now if they had a QB that could throw the ball in week 4. They didn’t due to Brady being suspended and injuries to number 2 Jimmy Garappolo and number 3 Jacoby Brissett. Now they get Brady back and play the winless Cleveland Browns.
In the past wherever there has been controversy around Brady (or for that matter the cheating Patriots) then Brady goes for the kill. This is reflected in the Patriots being the shortest priced favourite this weekend at 1.22. If you wanted to think about a multiple bet – double and up – then there is some value in backing NE for the outright win.
The spread offers Cleveland a 10.5 point start at odds around 1.91-1.95. I think New England has the chance to win big here but I have one or two concerns. The Patriots CB’s haven’t been very good this year and I think the Browns WRs, especially Terrelle Pryor could pose a problem for them. The Browns running game with Isiah Crowell and Duke Johnson has been very productive thus far. Of course, the Browns are winless and they start a rookie QB in Cody Kessler. The Patriots are going to mix up their coverages and try to confuse the rookie.
On offence the Patriots will score a lot of points in this game. The passing game will be revitalised and NE has one of the league leaders in rushing yards in LeGarette Blount. Blount is probable to play with a hip injury as of Saturday morning but he will line up. I would not be shocked to see NE roll for more than 400-420 yards on offence in the game.
I like NE to cover the spread at 1.95 and for Julian Edelman to go over 61.5 receiving yards at 1.83.
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Late Kickoffs – 4pm Eastern of 9pm UK
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos
The Falcons feature the NFL’s number one offence and league leading passing attack. In week 5 they go to Denver to face the unbeaten 4-0 defending super bowl champion Broncos. The Broncos feature the second best passing defence in the NFL. This is expected to be a great matchup.
In week 4 the Falcons QB Matt Ryan threw for over 500 yards with star WR Julio Jones catching 12 passes for 300 yards and a TD. This week they come face to face with a trio of excellent CBs and one of the best pass-rushes in the NFL led by Von Miller. This is by far the best defence Atlanta have faced in the 2016 season. Denver at home are very tough to beat. The altitude plays a role as does the rabid atmosphere.
I think Atlanta’s best chance in the game to get their running game going and use a lot of play action passes. Denver ranks 21st in run defence and this has been their weak spot all season. If they can’t establish a running attack then I think they struggle. Were they to get a lot of 3rd and longs then the Broncos pass-rush will tee off on Ryan. He is not the best QB under pressure!
For Denver it looks like starting QB Trevor Siemian will play. He left last weeks game with an injury and the Broncos finished the game with rookie QB Paxton Lynch at the helm. Siemian was really improving with 4 touchdown passes the previous week. He looked to be more comfortable with his WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders who I think will both have big games here. The Broncos also feature a strong running game led by CJ Anderson.
How do I see this unfolding? I think Julio Jones goes close to his receiving line of 87.5 yards but it will be in a losing effort. In the NFL the matchups of ‘great offence’ vs ‘great defence’ I will always take the defence. So I will take Denver -4.5 at around the 1.90-1.95 mark.
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
A shorter review for this game but I like a couple of player markets.
The 3-1 Raiders play their second home game of the 2016 season against San Diego. The Raiders strength is their passing game led by QB Derek Carr and WRs Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. The Raiders average 266 passing yards per game. The Chargers allow an average of 290 passing yards per game and will be missing both starting CBs for this game. The early lines for the player markets here are:
- Carr – 277.5 passing yards
- Cooper – 75.5 receiving yards
- Crabtree – 65.5 receiving yards
To me the value is with the two WR’s. I think they will both go well over these lines. Their early odd are both 1.83 with Paddy Power.
BTW – The Raiders also struggle vs the passing game so Chargers fans might want to look at Philip Rivers line of 305.5.
Week 5 – Sunday Games – Tips
Team Picks
WON – Back New England Patriots -10.5 to beat Cleveland Browns for a 2.5/10 stake at 1.95 with Bet365.
Bet here:
Back Denver Broncos -4.5 to beat the Atlanta Falcons for a 3.0/10 stake at 1.92 with 888Sport.
Bet here:
Player Markets
Back Julian Edelman to go over 61.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
WON – Bet on Amari Cooper to go over 75.5 receiving yards against San Diego for a 4.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Back Michael Crabtree to go over 65.5 receiving yards against San Diego for a 4.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Bet on all 3 here:
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