The group phase of the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals concludes on Friday when the second half of the draw play their last matches as we finalise the semi-finals in the last event of the season in the Italian city of Turin.
It is an intriguing day of tennis that awaits us too because we have a complex equation across the two doubles matches while in the singles group we have a straight knockout as well as a dead rubber between two of the best in the game.
Day Session
Wesley Koolhof & Neal Skupski vs Ivan Dodig & Austin Krajicek
The opening match of what looks like a great day of tennis sees the number one seeds Wesley Koolhof and Neal Skupski looking to make it through to the semi-finals when they go up against the French Open finalists Ivan Dodig and Austin Krajicek.
Koolhof and Skupski need to win to keep their hopes alive in this tournament but even a win still won’t guarantee their progress. A straight sets win will certainly help their cause and that is what they will be aiming for. Anything but a straight sets win will eliminate Dodig and Krajicek and even then they will need help in the later match in the evening. Essentially, you sense this is a first set match. Motivation might quickly diminish if Dodig and Krajicek lose it while they might gain in size if they win it. I’m already on the number one seeds outright so I can use that as my interest in this one.
Daniil Medvedev vs Novak Djokovic
The singles match in the afternoon session sees Daniil Medvedev closing out his season when he takes on a Novak Djokovic who knows that whatever happens in this match he will be returning for a semi-final with Taylor Fritz on Saturday.
We saw this position on Thursday when an already out of the tournament Rafael Nadal took on a Casper Ruud who had booked his place in the semi-final and the man who was going home won in straight sets. I’m not suggesting for one minute that Djokovic would tank this match but there has to be a thought of conserving energy for a match that matters while Medvedev will clearly be eager to finish his season on a high. The problem for the Russian is that Djokovic has looked as good as ever so far this week and so Medvedev will need to be at his absolute best to beat him. Whether he can raise himself to that level with no competitive motivation remains to be seen. I’m no fan of betting on dead rubbers so I’m happy to leave this one alone.
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Night Session
Nikola Mektic & Mate Pavic vs Thanasi Kokkinakis & Nick Kyrgios
The final doubles match of the group phase of the tournament sees the Croatian pair of Nikola Mektic and Mate Pavic on show when they take on the enigmatic Australian Open champions of Thanasi Kokkinakis and Nick Kyrgios.
The Croatians know that whatever happens here they are through to the semi-finals so in many ways this match is about the Australian pairing. Kokkinakis and Kyrgios know that a straight sets win sends them into the last four regardless of the result of the earlier match but should Koolhof and Skupski have dropped a set or lost the day game then any win will send the Australians through. Mektic and Pavic technically aren’t playing for a lot here but they do need a set to guarantee topping the group which would mean they would avoid Ram and Salisbury in the last four. I can’t bring myself to back a team who don’t need to win but at the same time they’ve been the best pair so far this week and I don’t really want to oppose them.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev
The last group match of the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals is effectively a quarter final as Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev battle it out in a straight knockout clash to determine who will face Casper Ruud in the semi-final on Saturday.
These two men have both edged out Daniil Medvedev and both have been taken down by Novak Djokovic and now they will battle it out with their season on the line. The winner here will come back on Saturday to take on Ruud for a place in the final while the loser will be done for the year. Tsitsipas goes into the contest as the favourite to come out on top but I think this is close to a 50:50. I’d just give the Greek the edge because Rublev is more than capable of beating himself but I’m expecting a truly cracking contest which on the face of it would appear to have three sets written all over it. Their two meetings this season have both gone three sets and they played a match in this event in 2020 which went to a deciding set tiebreak. Conditions here suit both men so I expect tight sets and not much between these two throughout. I would be very surprised if the game tally doesn’t go beyond 23.5 before this one is done and dusted.
Tips
Back S.Tsitsipas vs A.Rublev – Over 23.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Betway
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