The final day of the Omega European Masters is often a dramatic day on the golfing calendar and Sunday is set up to be no different as two Englishmen share a two shot lead on the field with 18 holes left to play.
Sheffield duo Danny Willett and Matthew Fitzpatrick are the men holding the lead going into the final day with the pursuers needing to go low to get back in touch after a tricky day on Saturday.
On moving day it was Matt Fitzpatrick, the man tipped up on this blog before the tournament at 125/1, who made the biggest move. He shot a wonderful 64 in windier conditions than we’ve had so far this week to power his way through the field to 12 under par. A late eagle by Danny Willett rescued an indifferent round from him to share Fitzpatrick’s lead. Willett is now the 5/4 favourite to win the tournament with Fitzpatrick 7/2.
I have to say given that Willett has only won one full field tournament in his career and the fact he didn’t look too great on Saturday I’m in no rush to back him at 5/4. Fitzpatrick represents better value at 7/2 but nothing like the value he was at the beginning of the tournament.
Raphael Jacquelin leads the chasing pack on 10 under par. He went close in Scotland a couple of weeks ago and is 8/1 to land the title here. David Lipsky is a further shot back as he bids to defend his title and he is 16/1 to come through on Sunday.
There are a group of six players on seven and eight under and another five on six under, including another pre-tournament tip Anirban Lahiri. Some big names sit in that group and if one of them can go low and the leaders come back they could yet find some success but they need help.
The final round will be played in three balls off the first tee because of a dodgy forecast which takes away some of the value from betting on the groups but does provide us with a couple of lop sided draws, one of which I’m keen to exploit on Sunday.
Alejandro Canizares has a good record around here having finished fourth and ninth in two of his last three outings here and he isn’t too far away again on -5. The Spaniard is out with Maximilian Kieffer and Renato Paratore on Sunday and that is a group I think he’ll go well in.
Kieffer is down in 27th in fairways hit this week and he’s no better in greens in regulation either. His putting stats aren’t the best so you get the feeling he is hanging on a little bit. Only one of his last nine final rounds have broken 70 so I’m happy to take him on.
Paratore is much better off the tee and on the greens but he has been leaking plenty of iron shots this week and with pins likely to be well protected on Sunday that’s not ideal. Paratore is 56th among the 71 left in the field in greens hit and I’m not convinced that will get it done.
In the two years Canizares made the top 10 around here he shot 64 and 67 on Sunday and anything like that on this particular Sunday should not only ensure him a decent pay cheque but see off his playing partners in this group.
Back A.Canizares to beat M.Kieffer & R.Paratore for a 3/10 stake at 2.88 with Paddy Power
