Sunday at The Open. The day where the champion golfer of the year will be crowned and heading into Sunday at Royal Troon that title looks like it can only go to one of two men as Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson pulled clear of the field on a fascinating moving day on Saturday.
Saturday Recap
It was a much better day for our bets on Saturday as a Thongchai Jaidee birdie on 18 was enough for him to beat Justin Rose by a shot and Emiliano Grillo was far too good for Anirban Lahiri as I expected him to be but even though Ryan Evans shot a round of +3 it was still far too good for Colin Montgomerie so we had to settle for two out of the three.
Away from our bets it was another tricky day out on the Scottish links and if you were under par for the round you made significant headway up the leaderboard. The top six going into Sunday all shot under par on Saturday but only seven other men beat par as a number of challenges faded.
Sunday Preview
Heading into Sunday it is Henrik Stenson who will lead by one with 18 holes to play with Phil Mickelson a shot further back. You think have a drop of five shots back to Bill Haas in third on six under par with Andrew Johnston on five under. JB Holmes has sole possession of fifth on four under.
There is a small little group on three under which contains our pre-tournament punt Tony Finau while a larger group on -2 includes Sergio Garcia who was another bet for us before a ball was hit this week. Hopefully one of them can finish strongly if not both of them and we can land some place money.
It looks like a match for the title on Sunday so we won’t go into the outright market again. We’ll just hope to nick some cash from those we’re already on for the week.
Sunday 2 balls
As ever all 40 groups are priced up for Sunday but with motivation among the earlier starters a little questionable I’m heading to the later groups for my bets on Sunday where I’m taking two of them.
The first one comes in the pairing involving two Americans – Steve Stricker and JB Holmes. The bookmakers who dare to split these two, and it has to be said there aren’t many, have Stricker as the favourite for the match up but I’m not sure I see it that way.
JB Holmes has shot three under par rounds of golf in this tournament so far with the only other men to do that being the four men above him. I’m not surprised by that because Holmes has the length to take apart the front nine but perhaps more importantly the length to restrict the damage on the back nine.
Stricker doesn’t have that length. He has a wonderful putting stroke and straight driving but with pins that are likely to be tucked away and well protected I’m expecting length to be key around here on Sunday and Holmes has enough of it to run up a lead and he might not be for catching.
Add in that Stricker doesn’t play many tournaments let alone tournaments in these conditions so a little bit of fatigue could easily catch up with him and I’m happy to be on JB Holmes to come through their match.
The final pairing sees Henrik Stenson out with Phil Mickelson. The Swede beat the former champion when they were paired together on Saturday and I think he can do it again here too.
You could see in Mickelson’s interview after the round that he was visibly jaded and a couple of heavy weeks might just be catching up with him but even if they don’t he has a problem in that Stenson is tearing the dreaded back nine apart this week.
Stenson is six under par for the back nine this week whereas Mickelson is only three under but he was four under for the first round so he’s played the last two rounds in a cumulative over par. That means he is going to need to run up a bit of a lead over the front nine and I’m not sure he can.
Even if he does he could fade badly should tiredness catch him on the back nine. There is a reason that Jack Nicklaus is the oldest man to win a major at 46 and Mickelson is now 47. I believe Stenson wins this from here and he can finish more than the one shot ahead of Mickelson that he is heading into the final round.
Tips
Back JB.Holmes to beat S.Stricker for a 4/10 stake at 2.20 with Bwin
Back him here:
WON – Back H.Stenson to beat P.Mickelson for a 4/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddy Power
Back him here:
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