The DP World Tour leaves the Netherlands behind and makes the short trip to Germany this week for the Porsche European Open, a tournament which is gaining in profile largely due to the very tough test it is played on.
Kalle Samooja tamed the beast that is Green Eagle a year ago and the Finnish player will be back in Hamburg looking to make a successful defence of his title. He’ll do so against a competitive but not the strongest field.
Recent Winners
2022 – Kalle Samooja
2021 – Marcus Armitage
2019 – Paul Casey
2018 – Richard McEvoy
2017 – Jordan Smith
2016 – Alex Levy
2015 – Thongchai Jaidee
2009 – Christian Cevaer
2008 – Ross Fisher
The Course
We are back at the Green Eagle Golf Resort in Hamburg which will stage this tournament for the sixth time. This is a bit of a beast of a course. It can stretch to 7.800 yards and beyond but the official yardage for the week is going to be around the 7,450 range. The big change is It is now a par 73 with as many as six par 5s, including two over 600 yards, and five par 3s so the general consensus is that we want to be on the longer hitters here. Water is in play on all but one of the holes.
That isn’t to say that there isn’t a premium for hitting the fairways though. The large undulating greens are easy to find here but the longer hitters will be firing shorter irons into them which means that they can go for the flags a little more which could be the difference. Statistics would show us that there is a real premium on finding the fairways and then those who hit the most greens tend to be the ones battling it out for the title so invest in decent long games.
The Field
We do have to say that the fields are beginning to get weaker but with another major just a couple of weeks away over in America that probably isn’t a big surprise. The scheduling of this event could be better as I suspect if it wasn’t lodged in major season a number of better players would show up to test themselves on a good golf course. As it is we have just three members of the top 100 in the world here – Thorbjorn Olesen, Adri Arnaus and Robert MacIntyre.
There are a number of top 20 players in the Race to Dubai rankings who are here. As well as Olesen, Jorge Campillo, Ockie Strydom, Alexander Bjork, Yannik Paul, Sami Valimaki, Romain Langasque, Antoine Rozner, Marcel Siem and Simon Forsstrom. The defending champion Kalle Samooja is also in the field looking to hold onto the title as is the man he took the crown from in Marcus Armitage. Rasmus Hojgaard and Jordan Smith are also here.
Market Leaders
We have 20/1 joint favourites on the best prices this week. They are Rasmus Hojgaard and Jordan Smith, both of whom have shown odd glimpses of good form this season but perhaps not the consistency they would like. Hojgaard was third in Holland last weekbut hasn’t cracked the top 50 here while Smith has won around here and has finished T11 and T10 in the last two years. That would make me sway towards Smith if I was backing either but I think you need to be in great form to win around here and he isn’t.
Yannik Paul is next in the betting at 22/1. The German will be on home soil which is already a positive. Another positive is that he has won on the DP World Tour since he last played here when he finished inside the top 20. He has also finished second twice this season. If there is a question mark then it would probably come in his most recent form which hasn’t been the best. If he was a few points higher I might have taken the plunge but he is a little tight.
Four players are shorter than 33/1 in the betting and they are all 25/1 on their best prices. They are Thorbjorn Olesen, Antoine Rozner, Robert MacIntyre and Alexander Bjork. Olesen has been consistent this term but his record around here is very poor and this is a course where you either get on with it or you don’t. Rozner has been consistent without being in contention recently and couldn’t crack the top 50 in his only previous start here. MacIntyre looked in good touch in Asia but then withdrew in Italy and had a mare at the USPGA. He was second here in 2019 but it doesn’t feel like he is about to win. Bjork has probably been the most consistent of the four both this season and around here but a lack of length could catch him out.
Main Bets
I took Romain Langasque in Holland last week but it didn’t really happen for him but he stats quite well for this test. To be fair to the Frenchman, he was inside the top 20 last week so it wasn’t a bad spin and the thing which catches my eye this week is that he ranks fourth in par five scoring. When you consider that a third of this track are par fives that is a huge thing and a statistic I very much want on my side this week.
The other statistic I want here is driving distance. To be fair, the course hasn’t been setup as long and as brutal as in previous years, assuming the scorecard on the DP World Tour website is correct, but again with six par fives on the course and three par fours under 400 yards I do expect length to be a big thing here. Langasque is long enough and if he gobbles up the scorable holes and hangs tough on the others he could be the one to beat here.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders this week with the first of them being Gavin Green who we all know can give it a good wallop off the tee. He is so much better on tracks where he can get his shoulders go and in the main this is one of them. His length will be a key feature and he is in good form too which further encourages me here. The Malaysian has three top 15 finishes in his last five starts including last week where he could well have gone even better than T8 had he not stalled in the final round. I don’t think a poor round around here is too costly so I’ll pay to see how Green does this week.
The other two outsiders this week are South African players with the first of those being Wilco Nienaber. He is the longest on the DP World Tour in terms of driving distance and as a result of that he heads up the par five scoring so he really has to be in the staking plan given the makeup of this course this week. Whether he keeps the bogeys off the cards remains to be seen but he certainly looks like he is going to get joy on the six par fives. His form hasn’t been fantastic in recent times but there are bits of scoring which suggests he is going ok so he is definitely on the staking list.
The final bet is Louis de Jager, the South African player who is also long and scores well on the par fives. De Jager is ranked at 20 on the DP World Tour in par five scoring and with a few players above him not here this week that ranking is effectively even higher. He also ranks eight in driving distance and he has had more recorded rounds than anyone so he might even be better than some of those above him whose stats are distorted by a lack of rounds. De Jager had a couple of decent rounds in the Netherlands last week which makes me think he is hitting the ball well and if he is he is a big price here.
Tips
Back R.Langasque to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back G.Green to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back W.Nienaber to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
Back L.de Jager to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
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