The curtain comes down on the Premier League weekend in the Monday Night Football when two London sides in the top 10 in the table meet when Brentford go up against Fulham in a key match in the race for European football.
Brentford begin the night in ninth place in the table but they will move to within a point of Fulham who start seventh. A win for the Cottagers will move them up to sixth in the league so there is no shortage of things to play for.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Monday Night Football programme on the Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League channels. The show begins at 7pm and kick off in London is at 8pm.
Brentford
When the season began there were some who feared the second season syndrome would be an issue for Brentford but this is a club who regularly move forward and that is what has happened this term too. There is a theory that clubs the size of Brentford want to get to 40 points as quickly as possible to ensure another season of Premier League football but realistically even with 35 points at present the Bees are perfectly safe so can look up rather than over their shoulder.
Brentford head into this match unbeaten in 11 outings but if there is a slight concern it would be that they have had more than two weeks since their last game and might be a little rusty as a result of that. The flip side of that is that it would have given those who had bumps and bruises time to recover as they go about extending a home record which has seen only Arsenal leave this part of London with all three points this season.
Fulham
Fulham are a year behind Brentford in terms of time back at this level and establishing themselves and everything else, however they begin the night two places above the Bees in the table and looking to skip the acclimatise period and head straight towards the pushing for European football part. They are on course to qualify for that this season if they can maintain their form and a win here would do that no harm at all.
Whether they can maintain that is the question. It kind of feels wrong to criticise such a good season but the numbers suggest that their record isn’t sustainable, at least defensively where they should be conceding a lot more than they are if xGA is anything to go by. Usually that isn’t necessarily catastrophic but when you consider that the goals have dried up in recent times that is a concern. Fulham have scored just four times in their last six outings in the Premier League and they need to find the bet more often.
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Team News
Brentford boss Thomas Frank has declared he has a full squad available for this match after Frank Onyeka and Pontus Jansson have both overcome hamstring issues. Ivan Toney is expected to face a lengthy ban for his betting misdemeanours but no suspension has come his way as of yet.
Fulham will be without midfielder Joao Paulinha as he starts a suspension for accumulating 10 bookings in the recent draw with Wolverhampton Wanderers. The Cottagers are also without the injured Layvin Kurzawa, Tom Cairney and Neeskens Kebano.
Betting
If you are a law of average bettor then you are probably liking the idea of a Fulham win given that we have had eight home wins and a draw in the nine matches in this round so far. I wouldn’t necessarily have gone against a Fulham win had Joao Paulinha been available but I sense he is a key man in their side and I think his absence heavily sways this the way of Brentford. To be fair, opposing Brentford at the Gtech hasn’t been a particularly profitable exercise this season and I’m not going to do that here.
I like Brentford here. I’m not convinced that Fulham’s defensive record can stay intact anyway but when you consider that the Bees can hurt teams in open play and from set plays they are always going to be in the game. Even money feels a little tight in price though so rather than back them just to win I’m going to put a bit of juice into the price and take a Brentford win with more than over 1.5 goals. Every Brentford home win this season has covered this goal line while four of the five Fulham defeats on the road have covered it and the one that didn’t, which was a 1-0 loss at Newcastle, saw the Toon side rack up an xG of 1.93. Fulham have played four away Premier League games in 2023 and have given up xG totals of 1.53, 1.93, 1.30 and 2.77 so they cough up plenty of big chances on the road. Brentford have the firepower to take advantage so I’m on a home win with more than 1.5 goals.
Tips
Back Brentford to win and over 1.5 goals for a 3/10 stake at 2.55 with Coral
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